New Year’s Day brings with it a Fiesta Bowl matchup between a longtime SEC powerhouse and a two-time defending American Athletic Conference champion when the No. 11 Louisiana State Tigers do battle with the No. 8 University of Central Florida Knights at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. Sportsbooks opened the Tigers as 7.5-point favorites with a total of 55.5.
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of Central Florida’s last nine games (avg. combined score: 64.67).
- Central Florida is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games.
- LSU is 1-3 ATS in its last four games.
Can Mack Jr. carry the load under center for the Knights?
UCF is riding a 25-game win streak – an FBS-best mark – into the contest, with Knights fans referring to them as the “national champs.” While the selection committee may not agree with that moniker, there’s no denying the Knights’ talent on both sides of the ball. The Knights won’t have star quarterback McKenzie Milton for this one but first-year coach Josh Heupel has the team on the brink of a second straight undefeated campaign regardless behind second-stringer Darriel Mack Jr.
Quietly, the Knights have been an excellent UNDER wager of late. UCF has gone UNDER the closing total in seven of its past nine games with an average combined score of 64.7 points. There isn’t a team in the country that would call itself a bigger underdog than Central Florida, and the Knights have lived up to the label thanks to a 5-1 ATS record in their previous six as dogs.
Burrow has been the reliable QB LSU was looking for
At 9-3 SU, it’s been an up-and-down season for Ed Orgeron’s Tigers. LSU had a tough schedule against seven ranked opponents and held its own by going 4-3 in those contests. Despite the disappointing result, the Tigers are a club on the rise. Quarterback Joe Burrow had an excellent season in his first year in the Bayou State, throwing just four interceptions while finishing with a 68.9 completion percentage, six touchdowns and no interceptions in the Tigers’ past three tilts.
The Tigers stumbled down the stretch when it comes to covering the spread, going 1-3 ATS in their final four regular-season contests. Unsurprisingly, LSU is 11-0 SU in its previous 11 when coming off a loss and 11-1 SU in its last 12 as favorite.
My pick: take the UNDER
While I’m leaning toward LSU on the spread, the solid UCF defense has me wary of backing the Tigers in that regard. That’s why I’m picking the UNDER instead. LSU’s defense allowed just 3.8 yards per carry this season, and the Knights rank third in the FBS with a plus-14 turnover margin. UCF also had 13 picks and 13 fumble recoveries in 2018. I expect this one to be relatively low-scoring, so take the UNDER.
