Marshall Thundering Herd vs USF Bulls

The 11th annual Gasparilla Bowl will be played for the first time at Raymond James Stadium, the home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, on December 20. Previously the game had been held indoors at Tropicana Field, the home of MLB’s Tampa Bay Rays. The Marshall Thundering Herd won this bowl game in 2011 and 2015 and open as a 2.5-point favorite vs the inaugural Gasparilla Bowl champions from South Florida.

Bulls Playing in Their Home Stadium

Normally, having the good fortune of playing a bowl game in your own stadium would be a huge stroke of good luck. However, for South Florida, they might have been happier to travel. The Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games, including failing to cover in their final four home games this season.

Not only were the Bulls a poor bet at home, but they also went 0-5 SU in their final five games and finished the regular season with the No. 91 scoring defense in the FBS. USF is also 121st against the rush – that’s 10th-worst in all of college football – allowing an AVERAGE of 245.1 yards per game. Yikes.

Marshall Rush Defense Could Be a Difference Maker

The Thundering Herd have been able to stop any thundering herds coming their way this season, boasting the No. 8 rush defense in the nation by yielding just 103.9 yards per game on the ground.

This is likely to be the biggest matchup in this game as USF has mostly relied on Jordan Cronkrite, Johnny Ford and its run game this season, piling up over 200 yards per game on the ground. Blake Barnett and his backups supplemented that with 241.2 yards per game in the air.

USF Passing Game Could Be in Peril

Speaking of Blake Barnett, he was injured in USF’s last game and remains on the injury report heading into the game. It will be almost a month between games for the Bulls, who last played on November 23, so they’re hoping that Barnett will be good to go at game time.

Barnett was already playing through a shoulder injury when he hurt his ankle in a late-season game vs Temple. Without Barnett at the helm, things have not gone well for a Bulls team that opened the season on a 7-0 run.

Regardless of who is under center at game time, they will be dealing with a new offensive coordinator after Sterlin Gilbert left for McNeese State in early December.

My Pick for This Game

I like Marshall at -2.5. Oddsmakers are no doubt giving some points to the Bulls for playing at their home stadium and I think those are points they might need to help them cover against the No. 34 scoring defense in the country.

Marshall had respectable efforts against both Virginia Tech and NC State while taking a win over FIU on November 24. The Thundering Herd won three of their final four games and are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs the AAC.