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Michigan Big Favorite Over Iowa For Big Ten Title

The Michigan Wolverines (11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS) are 4-0 SU and ATS over their last four games. The Wolverines can secure a spot in the College Football Playoff and win their first Big Ten title since 2004 with a victory Saturday over the Iowa Hawkeyes (10-2, 7-5)

Michigan Wolverines vs Iowa Hawkeyes
  • Date/Time: December 4, 8 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Lucas Oil Stadium
  • TV Coverage: Fox
  • Opening Odds: Michigan -8.5 | O/U 45 (Line History)
  • Michigan vs Iowa Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

The Wolverines received heavy betting action after opening as 8.5-point favorites, bumping the line up to Michigan -10.5. The total has settled in at 43.5 points after opening over the weekend at 45 points. 

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Michigan News & Notes

Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines finally solved the Ohio State Buckeyes in a 42-27 win as 6.5-point home underdogs on Saturday. Hassan Haskins rushed for 169 yards and five touchdowns on 28 carries in the win, bringing his season totals to 244 rushes for 1,232 yards and 18 touchdowns. The senior back has rushed for 156 yards in three of Michigan’s last four games.

Now all the Wolverines need to do is stick the landing with a win in the Big Ten championship game. Michigan is 7-1 SU and ATS over its last eight games, having bounced back from its one loss of the season to the Michigan State Spartans with four straight wins, including big ones at Penn State and on Saturday against Ohio State. A conference championship and a trip to the College Football Playoff would silence Harbaugh’s critics, at least for a little while.

Iowa News & Notes

If not for a stunning 24-7 loss as 11.5-point home favorites against the Purdue Boilermakers, the Hawkeyes could have potentially been in the conversation for a playoff spot too.

Iowa was 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS going into that game, and proceeded to lose its next game 27-7 at Wisconsin as well. But the Hawkeyes got back on track and punched their ticket into the Big Ten title game with a 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS finish down the stretch.

Iowa is 5-1-1 ATS with four outright upsets in its last seven games as a betting underdog, including a 27-17 win over the Iowa State Cyclones earlier this season as a 4-point dog.

Tyler Goodson has rushed for over 130 yards in three of Iowa’s last four games, including a 156-yard effort on only 23 carries in the Hawkeyes’ 28-21 road upset over the Nebraska Cornhuskers last Friday.

How Michigan Will Cover

While the Wolverines and Hawkeyes have nearly identical stats on defense, Michigan’s 451.2 total yards and 37.3 points per game blow away Iowa’s 299.1 total yards and 25.7 points per game. That clear edge on offense should be the difference in this one.

How Iowa Will Cover

The Hawkeyes rank 14th in the nation in rushing defense, allowing only 105.8 rushing yards per game. Neutralizing Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum in the running game will be the key for Iowa to keep this game close enough to cover the spread and to play for an upset.

Computer Pick: Michigan -10.5

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For more college football predictions, visit our NCAAF Computer Picks page.

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Shark Bites
  • Michigan is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games vs Iowa.
  • Iowa is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games.
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in Iowa’s last 5 games vs Michigan.