The No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions are fresh off their bye week looking for redemption for their loss prior to the bye as they play host to the Michigan State Spartans. Penn State is just 1-4 SU in its last five games vs Michigan State but opened this week’s matchup as a 13.5-point favorite. The two teams have had an average combined score of 54.6 over their last five meetings and this week's total opened at 54 points.
- Michigan State is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games on the road vs Penn State.
- The total has gone OVER in 15 of Michigan State’s last 18 games vs Penn State (avg. combined score: 59.06).
- Trace McSorley threw for 381 yards and three touchdowns vs Michigan State last year.
Michigan State vs Penn State Game Center
Penn State looks to rebound from first loss of the season
Prior to its bye week, Penn State collided with then-No. 4 Ohio State at Beaver Stadium. Things were looking good for the Nittany Lions to improve to 5-0 on the season as they led the Buckeyes 26-14 with eight minutes remaining in the game. But two late strikes by Dwayne Haskins resulted in a narrow 27-26 Ohio State win in Week 5. Penn State now has had two weeks to stew over this loss and will look to release that anger upon Michigan State in Week 7.
Penn State has a tremendous offense that has averaged 49.6 points per game, fifth-most in the nation. The Nittany Lions are led by senior dual-threat quarterback Trace McSorley, who has thrown for 1,049 yards with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions while rushing for 410 yards and six TDs as well. Additionally, they possess junior running back Miles Sanders, who ranks 26th in the NCAA with 538 rushing yards and has scored six touchdowns. Defensively, Penn State has allowed 21 points per game which ranks 34th in the nation, and senior cornerback Amani Oruwariye has made passing difficult as he has two interceptions.
Last year, Michigan State hosted Penn State and pulled off the upset as it was ranked No. 24 while the Nittany Lions were ranked No. 7. Penn State carried a 24-21 lead into the fourth quarter but was shut out and held to just 87 yards in the final quarter, while Michigan State completed two field goals to secure the 27-24 win. The Spartans limited the Nittany Lions to just 65 rushing yards in the game, including shutting down Saquon Barkley for just 63 yards. Then-sophomore Brian Lewerke tossed 400 yards and two touchdowns in the win, while Trace McSorley threw a season-high 381 yards while tacking on three touchdowns of his own on the losing side.
Michigan State struggling offensively this season
Michigan State saw its two-game winning streak come to an end last week as it fell 29-19 to Northwestern, the Spartans’ second loss of the season. Michigan State appeared to be trending in the right direction prior to the loss, putting up 66 combined points in its victories over Indiana and Central Michigan while racking up 695 total yards of offense. But turnovers were still a glaring issue as junior quarterback Brian Lewerke threw two touchdowns but also threw three interceptions in those two games.
The Spartans average 27.2 points per game, which is 85th in the nation, and Lewerke has thrown for 1,328 yards with six TDs and six interceptions on the season. Defensively, though, Michigan State has been very strong, allowing 23.4 points per game, which is 41st in the NCAA, and giving up just 33.8 rush yards per game, which is the best mark in the nation by a long shot. Junior defensive end Kenny Willekes has been a nightmare for offensive linemen, racking up four sacks and 16 solo tackles through the first five games. The Spartans will need to stop the Nittany Lions run game if they want a chance to win.
Should you be on the OVER in this game?
Recent trends suggest the OVER is a smart play when Michigan State and Penn State come together and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 54 points. The total has gone OVER in 15 of the last 18 meetings between these two schools with an average combined score of 59.06, having gone UNDER 50 points just twice over that span. Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions have gone OVER in 10 of their last 12 games and boast the fifth-best offense in the nation this season, averaging 49.6 points per game. The Spartans have gone OVER in six of their last seven games, including their last three, with an average combined score of 51.29.
My Take on Michigan State vs Penn State
My thoughts for this match is the OVER 54 points. Penn State’s offense is terrific and I’m not sure that Michigan State’s run defense can slow down Miles Sanders or stop McSorley from tucking and running. The Spartans do allow 305.2 passing yards per game so McSorley may have to rely on that part of his game, which has been fairly good thus far, as he has thrown for 10 TDs and only two interceptions. Lastly, the total has gone OVER in seven of the last nine meetings between these two teams in Happy Valley with an average combined score of 55.56.
