Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Appalachian State Mountaineers

Appalachian State’s head coach the past six seasons is gone. Scott Satterfield made the jump to Louisville last week and will not coach the Mountaineers in the New Orleans Bowl against Middle Tennessee State. Assistant and defensive line coach Mark Ivey has been named App’s interim head coach and will call the shots this week. Sun Belt Conference champions, the Mountaineers finished the regular season 10-2 straight up and 8-4 against the spread. They won their final five games straight up, but were 2-1-2 ATS during that stretch.

Middle Tennessee features the rare father-son combo at head coach and quarterback. Coach Rick Stockstill hopes to send his senior trigger Scott out on a winning note. The Blue Raiders finished 8-5 straight up and against the spread as they lost two of their last three regular-season games, which included a 27-25 loss to Alabama-Birmingham in the Conference USA championship. However, they have covered five out of their last six games heading into the New Orleans Bowl.

The Mountaineers opened as 9-point favorites before the line shrunk to App State -7. Middle Tennessee’s moneyline opened at +240 before dipping to +230 and leveling off at +225. The total opened at 50.5 before a slight uptick to 51.

Middle Tennessee vs Appalachian State Game Center

WHAT WE KNOW/LEARNED: REGULAR SEASON

App State – If you’re looking for a reason to hammer the OVER in this matchup, look no further than the Mountaineers’ offensive resume. They average 36.7 points, 241 rush yards and 429 total yards per game. Plus, their red-zone offense is about as good as it gets with 34 touchdowns in 49 trips inside their opponent’s 20-yard line.

App State allowed just 15.7 points per game, but that mark does come with the Sun Belt Conference caveat. Their third-ranked pass defense trailed only Miami (FL) and Michigan, while the Mountaineers boasted the 10th-lowest opposition third-down conversion rate and 13th-lowest red-zone touchdown rate. If the opposition advanced inside the Mountaineers’ 20-yard line, they scored a touchdown less than half of the time.

Middle Tennessee State – The Blue Raiders averaged 29.2 points per game during the regular season. Their offense leans heavily on the pass as their 105th-ranked rushing game isn’t going to lead to a bowl win over the Mountaineers. Stockstill paces the 41st-ranked pass offense. Over his past five games, he’s averaged 299 passing yards and completed 72 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and only three interceptions. MTSU’s red-zone conversion rate is an incredible 87.8 percent, which is another reason to LOVE the OVER in this contest.

The Blue Raiders allowed 25.3 points per game during the regular season and their pass and rush defense rank outside the top 50, which isn’t optimal when the 15th-ranked rush offense lines up opposite you. Middle Tennessee will get gashed by the Mountaineers run game, which could make an argument for a quicker game and less likely chance on the OVER, but I don’t expect these defenses to stop their opponents in a historically high-scoring bowl atmosphere on the turf.

NEW ORLEANS, LA FORECAST AND KICKERS

Inside Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

Middle Tennessee kicker Crews Holt has made 39 of 44 extra points and 16 of 21 field goals this season. He’s 12-for-13 on field goals over the past month. App State’s Chandler Staton has made all 55 extra points he’s attempted and is 11-for-15 on field-goal tries.

MY LEAN

In their last seven games when favored by 7 or more points, App State is 2-3-2 against the spread. The UNDER has hit in four of App State’s past five games.

Middle Tennessee was deemed an underdog of 7 or more points only twice during the regular season – at Georgia and at Kentucky – and finished 1-1 against the spread. The Blue Raiders are 2-8 straight up and 4-6 ATS when dogs of 7 or more points over their past 10.

College coaches leave between the end of the regular season and bowl games on an annual basis. However, the window between Satterfield’s departure and App State’s postseason kickoff is tight and that’s going to make a blowout win of 8 or more points over MTSU a challenge. Satterfield was 3-0 in bowl games the past three seasons. Coach Ivey is 0-0 at the helm. Consistency is key to maximizing college athletes’ production, especially in an early December bowl game where the give-a-care meter can be extremely low.

I lean the Blue Raiders to cover the 7 and OVER.