The No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide look to keep their undefeated season alive in the Battle of Highway 82 contest with the No. 18 Mississippi State Bulldogs at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama has been rolling through this season and looks to keep it going as a 25-point favorite over Mississippi State with the total Sportsbook at 52 points for this week’s match.
- Mississippi State is 0-10 SU in its last 10 games vs Alabama (avg. losing margin: 21.9).
- The total has gone OVER in seven of Alabama’s last 10 games (avg. combined score: 63.8).
- Alabama is 11-0 SU in its last 11 games (avg. winning margin: 32.36).
Mississippi State vs Alabama Game Center
Alabama continues to flex its muscles
The Crimson Tide put their haters to rest in Week 10 when they went into Death Valley and shut out then-No. 3 LSU 29-0 after people were doubting their record based on a somewhat light schedule. Prior to the LSU game, Alabama had had just one match against a ranked team, topping then-No. 22 Texas A&M 45-23 in Week 4. However, LSU was able to do something no other team could and that was pick off Tua Tagovailoa for the first time all season.
Alabama is getting it done on both sides of the ball, averaging the most points per game in the nation at 51.3 while allowing the seventh-fewest points per game at 14.1. The offense is led by Tagovailoa, the betting favorite to win this year’s Heisman Trophy. The sophomore quarterback has thrown for 2,361 yards this season with 27 touchdowns and just one interception. The Crimson Tide also have racked up 31 sacks, tied for fourth-most in the nation, and grabbed 13 interceptions, ranking in a tie for seventh in the NCAA.
Is Mississippi State’s Defense up to the tough task ahead?
The Bulldogs are looking for their second three-game winning streak of the season and their first win over the Crimson Tide since 2007. Mississippi State fell 19-3 in Death Valley to LSU in Week 8, its third loss in four games, but has rebounded with back-to-back wins over then-No. 16 Texas A&M (28-13) and Louisiana Tech (45-3). During the Bulldogs’ slump, quarterback Nick Fitzgerald struggled immensely, throwing for a combined 371 yards and no touchdowns through those four games, but he did rush for 378 yards and three touchdowns.
Mississippi State’s offense is just middle of the road, scoring an average of 29.1 points per game, which ranks 66th in the nation. However, its defense is smothering, allowing just 12.3 points per game, which is tied for the second-fewest in the NCAA. The Bulldogs are strong against both the run game and through the air as they surrender just 167.2 passing yards per game, which is the seventh-fewest in college football, while giving up just 111.4 rushing yards per game, ranking 18th in the nation.
UNDER Trending in the Battle of Highway 82
Alabama and Mississippi State both have strong defenses and Sportsbook has this week’s total Sportsbook at 52 points. The total has gone UNDER 52 points in seven of Mississippi State’s nine games this season with the only two games that went OVER coming in the first three weeks of the year. Meanwhile, the Battle of Highway 82 has gone UNDER in 13 of the last 18 games, including going UNDER 52 points in 18 of the last 20 meetings. Lastly, I think don’t think the Bulldogs are going to have much success vs the Crimson Tide defense and I don’t expect Alabama to rack up 50 points. I think the UNDER is a good play.
My take on Mississippi State vs Alabama
I like Alabama to cover the 25-point spread. The Crimson Tide are a perfect 9-0 this season, including going 6-3 ATS, and have an average winning margin of 37.22, winning by fewer than 25 points in just one game. ’Bama is coming off a 29-point victory over then-No. 3 LSU in Death Valley and the Tigers are also very stout defensively. I expect the Crimson Tide to stifle the Bulldogs offense and put up 30 or more points offensively, enough to cover the 25-point spread.
