A pair of undefeated SEC rivals square off Saturday night in Lexington as the 3-0 Kentucky Wildcats welcome the 3-0 Mississippi State Bulldogs to town. Mississippi State is living up to preseason billing as a dark-horse national playoff contender, winning its first three games by a combined score of 160-26 and going a perfect 3-0 against the spread in the process. Kentucky’s hot start is more of a surprise, but the Wildcats built on the momentum of a Week 2 upset at Florida with a 48-10 blowout of Murray State last week. Mississippi State has dominated this series over the past decade, winning eight of the last nine meetings and going 8-3 ATS in the last 11. The Bulldogs are a 10-point favorite to continue that success this weekend.
- Mississippi State is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games against Kentucky.
- Kentucky is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games.
- The UNDER is 7-1 in Kentucky’s last 8 games against a team with a winning record.
Mississippi State vs Kentucky Game Center
BULLDOGS OFFENSE CLICKING UNDER NEW COACH
It’s early, but Mississippi State doesn’t seem to miss longtime head coach Dan Mullen. In fact, the Bulldogs attack may actually be better under new coach Joe Moorhead than it was under Mullen, whose offensive mind was a big reason the Florida Gators signed him to a six-year, $36-million deal over the offseason.
Last week against University of Louisiana Lafayette, the Bulldogs racked up 331 rushing yards and gained another 276 through the air. The 607 total yards of offense marked the second time in three games under Moorhead that Mississippi State cracked the 600-yard plateau. To put that in perspective, prior to Moorhead’s arrival in Starkville, the Bulldogs had gained 600 yards in a game just five times in program history.
Most of the Bulldogs’ damage has been done on the ground, where they rank fifth in the nation with 312.3 yards per contest. Fifth-year senior quarterback Nick Fitzgerald ran for 107 yards and four touchdowns against the Ragin’ Cajuns, but was also effective through the air with a 14-for-21, 243-yard effort that included a pair of touchdown tosses.
WILDCATS STAR RUNNING BACK PREDICTING BIG GAME
Not many opponents have been able to slow down Benny Snell Jr. in the two-plus seasons he’s worn a Kentucky uniform. After racking up more than 2,400 rushing yards in his first two years in Lexington, the junior running back is on pace to set the all-time rushing record for the Kentucky program. And he’s started this season with an average of 6.0 yards per carry through three games, gaining 375 yards in the process.
However, Mississippi State bottled up Snell for just 18 yards on seven carries last year en route to a 45-7 whipping of the Wildcats, Kentucky’s worst loss of the season. Snell has already gone on record in promising that he won’t be kept down again, telling reporters, “I’m going to run on any team… This offense don’t fear nobody.”
Snell certainly has his work cut out for him as he looks to back up his talk on Saturday. Mississippi State defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons has been projected to go as high as second overall in next year’s NFL draft, while fellow lineman Montez Sweat is also considered an elite pro prospect. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs enter Week 4 with the eighth-best overall defense in the nation (259 yards allowed per game), ranking 13th against the run (85).
WHY I’M TAKING MISSISSIPPI STATE
These teams may have similar 3-0 records, but that’s about all that they have in common. Before we get too carried away with Kentucky’s start to the year, don’t forget that the Wildcats were also 3-0 at this point last season, then proceeded to go just 4-6 the rest of the way.
I don’t think the betting market completely appreciates how good this Mississippi State team is. Teams like Alabama, Auburn, Georgia and LSU get all the attention in the SEC, but the Bulldogs might just be the second-best team in the conference and Alabama’s biggest hurdle on the way to the national playoff. Laying 10 points here looks like a pretty cheap price, considering that the Bulldogs have covered the spread by double digits in each of their first three outings so far.
