All the stats point to a low-scoring SEC battle between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and LSU Tigers on Saturday night in Baton Rouge. The Tigers opened as a 7-point favorite at home to the Bulldogs, who are coming off a bye week. The Tigers are riding high after a 20-point win over Georgia and a boost to No. 5 in the AP Top 25.
- The total has gone UNDER in Mississippi State’s last three games vs LSU (avg. combined score: 42.33).
- LSU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs its conference.
- Mississippi State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs LSU.
Mississippi State vs LSU Game Center
Bulldogs Lead FBS in Fewest Points Allowed Per Game
The Mississippi State defense has proven itself worthy of being the top-ranked unit in the nation in terms of points allowed. Yes, the Bulldogs allowed 28 points in a loss to Kentucky but that’s a game in which Benny Snell Jr. put the Wildcats on his back with 165 rushing yards and four touchdowns.
That game aside, the Bulldogs have shut down Florida and Auburn in their past two games, allowing 13 and six points, respectively. With an extra week to game-plan for LSU, Bob Shoop should have his group ready.
Run-Heavy Offenses
Mississippi State is tops in the SEC with 240.67 rushing yards per game for a total of 1,444 yards on the ground through their six games. LSU is sixth in the conference at 202.14 yards per game. Both are in stark contrast to LSU’s 12th-ranked passing attack which is just 12 yards better per game than the Bulldogs’ 13th-ranked 190 passing yards per game.
Can Either QB be the Difference Maker?
With such a reliance on the ground game, could some timely passes be the difference in this game? Joe Burrow threw for 200 yards and ran for two touchdowns vs Georgia but was held without a passing TD for the third time in four games. In fact, Burrow has more games without a TD pass this season (four) than games with a TD pass (three).
Nick Fitzgerald doesn’t appear to be set to make the difference through the air either. He was 9-for-17 for 69 yards in the 23-9 win over Auburn two weeks ago, his third consecutive game without a touchdown pass. He’s thrown for just four touchdowns this year. He’s rushed for seven.
It doesn’t look like this game will be decided in the air.
My Pick for this Game
The total has not been released five days before the game but I’ll be taking a long, hard look at betting the UNDER in this game. The UNDER has hit in the past three games between these teams with an average combined score of 42.33.
Three of Mississippi State’s last four games have hit the UNDER but it seems that oddsmakers have adjusted to LSU’s style. Five of the Tigers’ closing totals have been set at 51 or less this season, which is minuscule by NCAA standards. Check back here soon for an updated totals analysis.
