There’s only one bowl game Ole Miss is eligible to play in this season – and that matchup goes Thursday night as the Rebels look to end a four-game losing skid against Mississippi State in the annual Egg Bowl at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Ole Miss continued its late-season swoon with a 36-29 overtime loss to the Vanderbilt Commodores, dropping the Rebels below the .500 mark with one game left. And Saturday’s outcome is largely moot for Ole Miss, which is ineligible for a bowl game due to NCAA infractions.
But there’s still plenty of pride at stake in the Egg Bowl, a rivalry that began way back in 1901. Ole Miss has won four of the previous six meetings between the teams, including a 31-28 thriller in last year’s edition. The Bulldogs strengthened their case for a marquee bowl berth with a 52-6 drubbing of Arkansas last time out, and would love to repeat their 55-20 drubbing of Ole Miss the last time these teams played at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in 2016. Mississippi State has opened as a 10-point favorite in this game.
- Ole Miss is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs its conference.
- Mississippi State is 8-1 SU in its last nine games on the road vs teams with losing records.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of Mississippi State’s last five games vs Ole Miss.
Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Game Center
Lowest of the Low
It’s one thing for a team to consistently produce UNDERS; it’s another matter altogether when that team accomplishes the feat despite facing some of the lowest numbers in the nation on a weekly basis. The Bulldogs are a sizzling 8-2 to the UNDER in their 10 games this season, while seeing six of their totals wind up below 50 at kickoff.
The catalyst for this incredible run: A stout defense that has limited opponents to a minuscule 12.8 points per game, the second-best average in Division I. Mississippi State has held foes to 13 or fewer points in each of its past four wins – and has also fared well against some heavy hitters, limiting Alabama to 24 points, LSU to 19, Auburn to nine and Florida to 13.
With the Bulldogs playing for bowl prominence and Ole Miss simply looking to take home the Golden Egg for the second consecutive year, the UNDER is the superior play in this one. The teams have gone below the number in 12 of their previous 17 meetings.
No Early Egg-citement Here
Despite producing nearly 60 total points in last year’s Egg Bowl, the teams got off to a slow start, with a Jordan Wilkins 22-yard TD run for Ole Miss representing the only first-quarter offense. And given both teams’ recent trends over the Sportsbook 15 minutes, there’s a good chance fans and bettors won’t see a lot of scoring in the early going Thursday.
Mississippi State’s defense needs no further introduction – the Bulldogs have held Division I opponents to a modest 3.3 points per game in the Sportsbook quarter, good for 14th in the country. But they’ve also struggled to produce their own first-quarter offense, particularly on the road: Mississippi State is averaging a paltry 1.5 first-quarter points per game away from Davis Wade Stadium.
Add in the fact that, despite boasting the 23rd-ranked scoring average, Ole Miss has managed just six first-quarter points over its previous three games, and the UNDER on the first-quarter total is the preferred option. Bettors might also want to consider taking the UNDER on each team’s first-quarter number.
My Pick: Bullish on the Bulldogs
The Golden Egg has switched sides in each of the past two years – and there’s little doubt, given how these teams are playing at the moment, that the Bulldogs are primed to reclaim the prized bauble this year. But let’s go one step further and say that Mississippi State should cover this one comfortably, thanks to a defense that has been one of the best and most consistent in the country.
While the Bulldogs have struggled to maintain offensive consistency, that shouldn’t be a problem against an Ole Miss team that has surrendered more than 30 points in each of its previous five games. Look for Mississippi State to win this one going away.
