No. 16 Volunteers Primed to Bring Misery to Mizzou

The Missouri Tigers made things more difficult for the Alabama Crimson Tide than oddsmakers thought they would – but they’ll be looking for more than a moral victory Saturday against SEC rival No. 16 Tennessee. The Tigers (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) comfortably covered in a 38-19 loss to the Tide, and are double-digit ’dogs again vs a Vols team (1-0 SU, 0-0-1 ATS) that edged South Carolina 31-27.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The spread for this one opened at Tennessee -11 but has since dipped down to 10. The total has seen a much bigger move, from an Sportsbook of 45.5 all the way up to 48.

Missouri News & Notes

The Tigers didn’t really make a dent in the scoreboard until the fourth quarter, but putting up 19 points against any incarnation of the Crimson Tide is notable. Quarterback Shawn Robinson had a tidy game, throwing for 185 yards and a touchdown while completing 19 of his 25 attempts; it might be worth looking at his OVER passing yards prop.

Another player who had a solid showing was running back Larry Rountree III, who finished with 14 carries for 67 yards against an imposing Alabama run defense. That said, Tennessee completely bottled him up in their 2019 meeting, limiting him to just 43 rushing yards on 16 attempts. Missouri as a team averaged a paltry 2.0 yards per carry vs the Crimson Tide last week.

Tennessee News & Notes

The Volunteers were expected to get a fight from the rival Gamecocks – and that’s exactly what happened Saturday, with the game tied at 24 until Jarrett Guarantano found Josh Palmer for a 32-yard TD strike to put Tennessee up for good with 9:25 remaining. Guarantano finished with 259 yards through the air to go along with one passing touchdown and another score on the ground.

That, combined with the Volunteers racking up 133 rushing yards on 33 carries, offers optimism for a much better showing against the Tigers. Tennessee will also look to improve its drive extension skills in its home opener after going just 1-for-12 on third downs against South Carolina. The Vols ranked 34th in Division I last season with a third-down conversion rate of 43.4 percent.

Betting Pick: Tennessee -11 (-110)

Let’s not read too much into Missouri’s successful cover last week. Alabama is a notoriously slow starter, and the game was well in hand by the time the Tigers offense started to click. Tennessee won’t take this game so lightly and should cover here.