The No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide look to remain undefeated on the season and run their win streak to nine dating back to last season as they welcome the Missouri Tigers to Bryant-Denny Stadium. Missouri has dropped its last two games and opens this week’s matchup as a 28.5-point underdog. These two schools rank in the top 30 in the nation for points scored this season and the total opened at 74 points.
- Alabama is 22-0 SU in its last 22 games at home (avg. winning margin: 31.77).
- Missouri is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in six of Alabama’s last seven games (avg. combined score: 68.71).
Missouri vs Alabama Game Center
Alabama continues to dominate its competition
Alabama moved its record to 6-0 this past Saturday by topping Arkansas 65-31. The 65 points scored by the Crimson Tide were most they have tallied in a game since they put up 66 against Ole Miss in Week 4 of last season, while the 31 points they allowed was the most since Clemson scored 35 in the 2016 national championship game. However, Alabama has run up scores over 50 points in five of its six games this season, so 65 points isn’t outlandish in comparison.
This season, the Crimson Tide have averaged 56 points per game, amassing 336 points, which is the most in the nation and 42 more points than second-place Ohio State. Their offense is led by Heisman Trophy favorite Tua Tagovailoa. The sophomore quarterback has thrown for 1,495 yards with 18 touchdowns and no interceptions and his 98.5 quarterback rating is the highest through six games of any QB since they began keeping track of that stat in 2003. What’s even more surprising is that the Hawaii native has yet to take a snap in the fourth quarter. Defensively, Alabama has allowed 16 points per game, the 11th-fewest in the NCAA.
Missouri has weapons on offense but difficulties on defense
Missouri opened the season with three straight victories, scoring an average of 43.67 points per game, but then ran into then-No. 2 Georgia in a 43-29 defeat. The Tigers had their bye week following the loss to Georgia but failed to capitalize on their rest when they collided with South Carolina in Week 6 as the Gamecocks eked out a 37-35 victory. This is the third road game of the season for Missouri and it has scored an average of 37.5 points in the first two away contests with a 1-1 record.
The Tigers have averaged 39 points per game this season, which is the 26th-most in the nation, and are led by senior quarterback Drew Lock. The Missouri native has thrown for 1,487 yards with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions, and his 1,487 yards are good for 24th-most in the NCAA. Defensively, though, it has been a different story for Missouri as the team has allowed 28.8 points per game, which ranks 84th in the nation. The biggest glaring issue for the Tigers is their secondary as they have been picked apart for an average of 284.8 passing yards per game, which ranks 117th in the nation and could be a huge issue against Tagovailoa.
OVER Trending between Missouri and Alabama
Missouri and Alabama have two high-powered offenses and Sportsbook has this week’s total Sportsbook at 74 points. The Tigers have gone OVER in seven of their last nine games vs divisional opponents with an average combined score of 71.89. Similarly, the Crimson Tide have gone OVER in six of their last seven games with an average combined score of 68.71. Last week, Arkansas was able to score 31 points against Alabama, and Missouri has a much more potent offense. If it could put up a similar effort, the 74 total could easily be achieved.
My take on Missouri vs Alabama
I like Alabama to cover the 28.5-point spread. The Crimson Tide have an average winning margin of 40, with their lowest winning margin being 22 points over then-No. 22 Texas A&M. Additionally, Missouri has allowed nearly 300 passing yards per game and is ranked 117th in the nation in that category, suggesting Tagovailoa should shred that secondary. Lastly, the Tigers have allowed 28.8 points per game, which ranks 84th in the NCAA, and they have yet to play an offense like the Crimson Tide.
