Malcolm Perry NCAAF Football Betting Preview Navy Midshipmen vs Memphis Tigers

Betting Preview: Navy Midshipmen vs Memphis Tigers

The Memphis Tigers boast the No. 1 pass defense in the nation heading into a Thursday night encounter with Navy – but that won’t mean a thing against a Midshipmen roster that will happily run the football all day long. The Tigers are coming off a 42-6 rout of South Alabama and are two-touchdown home favorites against fellow unbeaten Navy.

Navy Midshipmen vs Memphis Tigers (Matchup Report)
Date/Time: September 26, 8 p.m. ET
TV Coverage: ESPN
Sportsbook Odds: Memphis -14 | O/U 57.0 (Line History)

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

This one opened at Memphis -14; the Tigers have been a double-digit home favorite 11 times since the start of the 2017 season, and are 11-0 SU and 7-4 ATS in that span.

Navy News & Notes

How can we put the Midshipmen’s offensive approach into proper context? Consider that they’ve thrown just 17 passes in two games – that’s one fewer than the number of players who have had at least one carry. That run-heavy philosophy, combined with matchups against inferior opponents, has resulted in Navy ranking second in the country in average time of possession (38:12).

And time of possession will be particularly critical for Navy against a Memphis defense that hasn’t really been tested yet. The Midshipmen pulled out a 22-21 upset victory over the visiting Tigers a year ago, thanks in large part to having held the football for a whopping 42-plus minutes. Memphis ranks seventh overall in time of possession this season at 35:12.

Memphis News & Notes

The Tigers are also fans of the run, as evidenced by the 233 rushing yards they put up in defeat in last year’s meeting (the teams combined for nearly 500 yards on the ground.) But while they have run the ball 138 times through their first three games, they’ve also attempted 81 passes, with QB Brady White throwing for five touchdowns and two interceptions through the air so far.

It’s also encourgaging for Memphis fans and bettors that the Tigers have flashed stardom in the run defense department, limiting opponents to just 3.14 yards per carry and two touchdowns on the ground. They rank 40th in the country in rush yards allowed per game, and should be able to turn that improved D into a larger time-of-possession figure in this year’s matchup.

Betting Pick: Navy +14

The Tigers are well-positioned to avenge last year’s surprising loss, but the Midshipmen should still make a game of it. Take the visitors and the points here.

Shark Bites
  • Navy is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games.
  • Memphis is 13-0 SU in its last 13 games at home in September.
  • Navy is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games vs Memphis.
Navy is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games.away Memphis is 13-0 SU in its last 13 games at home in September.home Navy is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games vs Memphis.
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