TIAA Bank Field is once again the setting for this year’s Gator Bowl, as the North Carolina State Wolfpack and Texas A&M Aggies are set to collide for the right to be called champions in the Sunshine State. Sportsbooks opened the Aggies as 6.5-point favorites with a total of 58.5.
- Texas A&M is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as favorite.
- North Carolina State is 1-6 SU and ATS in its last seven games vs the SEC.
- The total has gone OVER in North Carolina State’s last six games in the playoffs.
Wolfpack vs Aggies Game Center
Wolfpack have traditionally been a poor bet vs the SEC
Offense certainly wasn’t the issue for North Carolina State this year, as Wolfpack quarterback Ryan Finley racked up 3,789 yards and 24 touchdowns to go along with a quarterback rating of 151.9. Standout wide receivers Kelvin Harmon and Jakobi Meyers were a big reason for that success, but Harmon declared for the NFL draft and is opting to sit out of his team’s bowl game.
N.C. State simply hasn’t fared well when it comes to covering the spread against SEC opponents of late, evidenced by the Wolfpack going 1-6 ATS in their past seven vs the conference. The Wolfpack have a habit of going OVER totals in bowl season, going OVER in each of their past six bowl games.
A&M’s pass defense could be a major liability
Texas A&M’s defense has been excellent against the run and vulnerable against the pass, so the Wolfpack would be wise to air it out in this one. The Aggies defense is second in the nation, yielding 92 yards per game on the ground, yet they’ve allowed 262.7 passing YPG – 109th in the country.
Expect the Aggies to lean heavily on starting running back Trayveon Williams, as the 21-year-old will look to improve upon his season totals of 1,524 yards and 15 touchdowns while averaging six yards per carry.
The Aggies have been a fantastic bet when getting the favorite label, evidenced by the squad going 8-2 ATS in its past 10 as chalk. They’ve been even better when it comes to winning straight up, going a perfect 14-0 SU in their last 14 contests as favorites.
My pick: take the OVER
I think this game is going to be a little closer than oddsmakers are expecting, and while A&M is a worthy favorite, N.C. State’s electric offense should keep it close. I’m more interested in the total, though. The Aggies have gone OVER the total in four of their past five bowl games, while the Wolfpack have eclipsed the closing total in each of their past six bowl games. I’m expecting that trend to continue and for fireworks to unfold in Florida.
