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NC State Looking to Avoid Orange Crush

At first glance, the N.C. State Wolfpack can look at their recent history against Syracuse and feel good about their chances for a bounce-back following a one-sided loss to Clemson. But the Orange are a much-improved team and carry a perfect home record into Saturday’s encounter at Carrier Dome. Syracuse has worked extra time in each of its previous two games, falling 44-37 at Pitt on Oct. 6 before rebounding following its bye with a 40-37 OT win over visiting North Carolina.

The Wolfpack couldn’t do much of anything right in their showdown with the ACC Atlantic Division leaders, getting outgained by more than 160 yards while going an abysmal 2-for-12 on third down. Meanwhile, the Orange have emerged as one of the conference’s pleasant surprises – particularly on offense, where Syracuse is averaging a blistering 42.6 points per game. The home team is favored by 1 point, with the total having not yet been released. 

SHARK BITES
  • Syracuse is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games after losing the previous game in a matchup.
  • North Carolina State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs its conference.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Syracuse’s last 15 games at home.

NC State vs Syracuse Game Center

Orange Leading the Turnover Battle

Oddsmakers have these teams close to even heading into their Week 9 showdown – so any edge is a critical one. And the Wolfpack will see one of their biggest advantages negated by the host Orange. N.C. State ranks fourth in the nation in third-down conversion rate (53.7 percent), but runs into a Syracuse defense limiting opponents to a 24.8 percent success rate (26 of 105) on third down. 

One area where the Orange have a sizable edge against the visiting Wolfpack: turnover margin. Syracuse has already racked up a whopping 17 turnovers (seven fumble recoveries, 10 interceptions) while boasting one of the nation’s top turnover differentials at +8. The Wolfpack lost the turnover battle 3-1 to the Tigers last weekend and are at a dismal -1 in turnover differential for the year.

When the spread is this close, winning the turnover count can go a long way toward deciding a Sportsbook. And with the Orange holding a nine-turnover advantage over the Wolfpack, bettors might want to consider siding with the hosts.

Wolfpack a Strong Road Under Play

If there’s something working in N.C. State’s favor, it is 6-3 SU in its previous nine games. But more notable over that stretch is the fact that the Wolfpack have cashed the UNDER eight times, making them one of the best road UNDER options in the country. N.C. State extended that trend with last week’s 41-7 defeat, which came in 10 points below the total.

With four of those games having gone below the number by 10 or more points, Wolfpack road games have rewarded UNDER bettors handsomely. And it’s worth considering that the only OVER in that span – a 37-20 win over Marshall in N.C. State’s first road game of the season Sept. 22 – went above the total by a mere half-point.

N.C. State’s defense has shown up in a big way on the road, holding six of its last nine opponents to 21 or fewer points. It might be risky to take the UNDER with Syracuse so dangerous at home, but this trend has legs. 

My Pick: Take the Orange Early

Getting off to a fast start will be critical for both sides Saturday – and to that end, the Orange have a major edge. Syracuse boasts the fifth-best first-quarter scoring average in the nation vs FBS opponents, averaging 11.8 points in the first 15 minutes of those contests. Compare that to N.C. State’s 4.6 first-quarter scoring average, and it’s no contest.

Need more evidence? N.C. State has scored just three points in the first quarter of its two road games, while Syracuse had tallied 43 first-quarter points in three games prior to being blanked last week against the Tar Heels after missing a 44-yard field goal. I like the home team to not only cover the first-quarter spread, but to surpass its Sportsbook-quarter team total.

Syracuse is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games after losing the previous game in a matchup.home North Carolina State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs its conference.away The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Syracuse’s last 15 games at home.home
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