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NCAAF Free Pick: Appalachian State Mountaineers at Marshall Thundering Herd

Prediction Machine NCAAF Free Pick: Appalachian State Mountaineers at Marshall Thundering Herd

Appalachian State Mountaineers at Marshall Thundering Herd (APP -5, O/U 59)

Appalachian State looks to remain in the Top 25 with a victory over the Marshall Thundering Herd on Saturday. The Mountaineers have a new head coach in Shawn Clark but started off well with a 15-point victory over the Charlotte 49ers. They’ll now head to Joan C. Edwards Stadium to square off with Marshall.

The Thundering Herd rolled in their first game of 2020, toppling Eastern Kentucky 59-0. They’ll need their passing game to produce and their rush defense to remain stout against the No. 23-ranked Mountaineers if they want a chance at going 2-0.

Appalachian State enters this road matchup as a 5-point favorite over Marshall. Our model believes the Mountaineers’ edge over Marshall is even larger, projecting a final score of 34.1-23.1 in favor of Shawn Clark’s squad. We’re suggesting a $118 wager on Appalachian State -5 for an average $100 bettor.

Prediction Machine’s NCAAF picks went 322-275 ATS (53.9%) and 321-249 on O/Us (56.3%) in 2019, profiting +55.29 units, or $5,529 for an average $100 bettor. Head over to predictionmachine.com to sign up for a free trial and get access to every NCAAF projection.

Why will Appalachian State cover the spread?

  • The Mountaineers are talented enough on defense to slow down Marshall’s passing attack, which is the bread and butter of the Thundering Herd’s offensive game plan. Appalachian State allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (162.1) in college football last season and the fewest passing touchdowns (8) in the country. That defense transferred over to its first game of 2020, when App State held Charlotte’s quarterback to an 11-for-30 outing with just 140 yards and two interceptions.
  • Appalachian State has a slew of talented running backs to fill the void left behind by third-round NFL draftee Darrynton Evans. The Mountaineers didn’t miss a beat on the ground in Week 1, with two backs posting 100+ yards and a touchdown, and a third posting 60 yards and two touchdowns.

Mountaineers at Thundering Herd: How to bet the total

This matchup currently features an OVER/UNDER of 59.0. Prediction Machine’s projected score totals 57.2 points (34.1-23.1), giving us a slight edge on the UNDER in this one. Our model suggests a $43 wager on UNDER 59 for an average $100 bettor.