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NCAAF Free Pick: Auburn Tigers vs LSU Tigers

NCAAF Free Pick: Auburn Tigers vs LSU Tigers

Auburn Tigers @ LSU Tigers (LSU -11, O/U 58.5)

Gus Malzahn and the Auburn Tigers head into Death Valley to square off with the second-ranked LSU Tigers. Ed Orgeron is enjoying some great quarterback play from Joe Burrow, who is leading the nation with a 79.6 percent completion rate and ranks second in passing yards (2,157) and passing touchdowns (25). Auburn will attempt to slow the Heisman front-runner with its stout defense, but Vegas is giving a sizable edge to LSU.

LSU is currently listed as an 11-point favorite heading into Saturday’s matchup of top-10 teams. Our model thinks Auburn will be able to hang close enough to cover the spread, however, giving us a solid wager on Gus Malzahn’s squad. Our model recommends a $97 wager on AUB +11 for an average $100 bettor.

The Linebacker’s NCAAF picks are 201-173 ATS (53.7%) and 207-145 on OVER/UNDERs (58.8%) over the first eight weeks, profiting +54.60 units, or $5,460 for an average $100 bettor.

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Why Will Auburn Cover the Spread?

  • LSU’s pass offense has been extremely dynamic this year with Joe Burrow at the helm. They rank third in the nation with 368.7 yards passing per game and have done so efficiently with 10.3 yards per attempt (sixth-highest). Auburn has been able to limit opponents’ passing attacks thus far, allowing a 13th-best 6.0 yards per attempt on defense.
  • Auburn possesses the more efficient rushing attack in this matchup. They’ve averaged an 18th-best 5.3 yards per carry on the season, while LSU lags behind at 4.8 ypc (39th). Both rush defenses have been stout through their first seven games. LSU is allowing an 11th-best 3.0 yards per carry, with Auburn right on their heels at 3.1 yards per carry (12th).
  • Auburn’s defense should be able to slow down what has been the best red-zone offense in college football. LSU has scored touchdowns on 31 of 39 red-zone trips and tacked on eight field goals to create a perfect 100 percent scoring rate when reaching the red zone. Auburn’s red-zone defense has limited opponents to scoring just 70 percent of the time (13th-best) and has allowed opponents to score a touchdown on just eight of 20 red-zone appearances.

Auburn @ LSU: How to Bet the Total

This game currently features an OVER/UNDER of 58.5. The Linebacker’s projected score totals 60.3 points (33.2 - 27.1), giving us an edge on the OVER in this one. Our model suggests a $37 wager on OVER 58.5 for an average $100 bettor.