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NCAAF Free Pick: Baylor Bears vs Oklahoma State Cowboys

NCAAF Free Pick: Baylor Bears vs Oklahoma State Cowboys

Baylor Bears @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (OKST -3.5, O/U 68)

Oklahoma State will host the undefeated Baylor Bears on Saturday looking to avoid its third conference loss in four games. The Cowboys are luckily at home in this one, as both of their losses have come away from Stillwater. This matchup is shaping up to be a typical Big 12 affair, with both offenses entering Saturday averaging more than 475 yards of total offense and 37-plus points per game. Oklahoma State is currently listed as a 3.5-point favorite, and our model projects they’ll cover the spread in this one. We predict the Cowboys will win by a score of 36.2 - 28.0, giving us a solid edge on Oklahoma State. Our model suggests a $92 wager on OKST -3.5 for an average $100 bettor.

The Linebacker’s NCAAF picks are 174-141 ATS (55.2%) and 174-122 on OVER/UNDERs (58.7%) over the first seven weeks, profiting +48.26 units, or $4,826 for an average $100 bettor.

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Why Will Oklahoma State Cover the Spread?

  • The Cowboys have one of the nation’s elite running backs in Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard leads the country with 1,094 yards on the season, more than 250 yards clear of second and third place (J.K. Dobbins and Jonathan Taylor). Hubbard has also reached pay dirt 13 times already, just one behind the nation’s leader in Taylor. Baylor’s rush defense was just trampled by Texas Tech’s SaRodorick Thompson, who tallied 153 yards and two touchdowns on 28 carries in Week 7.
  • Baylor also just lost starting middle linebacker Clay Johnston. Johnston is not only one of its best defensive players, but one of the best players on the entire team. The senior linebacker’s 58 total tackles are nearly double the next-closest defender (Terrel Bernard, 30). His absence will open up more holes not only for Chuba Hubbard, but also for opposing dual-threat QB Spencer Sanders.
  • Johnston has been a force all over the field. His 2.5 sacks rank third on the team and he is second with eight tackles for a loss. His defensive presence was also felt in the passing game, where he had a team-high five pass deflections and recorded an interception that led to his subsequent ACL injury on the return.
  • In what’s expected to be a close game, the Cowboys enter with the edge in special teams. They’re 10-for-10 on field goals this season, while Baylor is just 4-for-7 with a long of 38 yards. The Bears also enter Saturday’s matchup with the worst average punt distance in the Big 12 (37.1 yards).

Baylor @ Oklahoma State: How to Bet the Total

This game currently features an OVER/UNDER of 68. The Linebacker’s projected score totals 64.2 points (36.2 - 28.0), giving us an edge on the UNDER in this one. Our model suggests a $92 wager on UNDER 68 for an average $100 bettor.