Florida Gators vs Georgia Bulldogs (UGA -3.5, O/U 52.5)
An SEC East showdown between two top-10 teams is set to take place Saturday as the fifth-ranked Georgia Bulldogs will square off with the eighth-ranked Florida Gators.
Dan Mullen and the Gators enter the matchup with the SEC’s second-highest scoring offense, averaging 42.0 points per game. Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs will attempt to slow down Florida’s high-powered offense with their SEC-best defense that is allowing just 16.2 points per game this season. It’s going to be a battle of strengths in this ever-important SEC matchup, and Vegas is anticipating a tight matchup. The Bulldogs are currently listed as 3.5-point favorites over Mullen’s Gators.
Despite a tight spread in this SEC East showdown, our model is predicting Georgia will win by nearly 10 points on Saturday, projecting a final score of 32.4-22.5 in favor of the Bulldogs. With a near double-digit victory projected and the spread sitting at 3.5 points, we have a sizable edge on Georgia against the spread. Our model suggests a $126 wager on GEORGIA -3.5 for an average $100 bettor.
Prediction Machine’s NCAAF picks are 106-97 ATS (52.2%) and 118-72 on O/Us (62.1%) in 2020, profiting +26.04 units, or $2,604 for an average $100 bettor. Head over to predictionmachine.com to sign up for a free trial and get access to every NCAAF projection.
Why will Georgia cover the spread?
- Kyle Trask and the Gators enter with one of college football’s best passing attacks, averaging 9.7 yards per pass attempt. The Bulldogs will need to limit Trask’s efficiency on Saturday if they have any hope of winning, and we think they have a decent shot to do just that. Georgia has allowed 6.4 yards per pass attempt this season (24th) and gets to the quarterback on 8.95 percent of opponent dropbacks (21st).
- Georgia’s talent defensively presents a clear advantage over Florida. Georgia has surrendered just 4.3 yards per play this season (ninth-best), while Florida is more mediocre with 5.6 yards per play allowed (53rd). If the Bulldogs can take advantage of Florida’s average defense and sustain drives, they’ll limit Trask and the Gators’ offensive possessions, which will be a key to victory.
Florida vs Georgia: How to bet the total
This matchup currently features an OVER/UNDER of 52.5 points. Prediction Machine’s projected score totals 54.9 points (32.4-22.5), giving us a decent edge on the OVER in this one. Our model suggests a $57 wager on OVER 52.5 for an average $100 bettor.
