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NCAAF Free Pick: Indiana Hoosiers vs Michigan State Spartans

Prediction Machine NCAAF Free Pick: Indiana Hoosiers vs Michigan State Spartans

Indiana Hoosiers vs Michigan State Spartans (IND -7.5, O/U 52)

The 3-0 Indiana Hoosiers head north to East Lansing to square off with the 1-2 Michigan State Spartans. The Spartans come into this matchup after getting trounced 49-7 by Iowa and will need a much stronger effort from their offense to keep up with Indiana’s high-powered unit. The Hoosiers have scored 36, 37 and 38 points in their first three games of 2020.

Mel Tucker’s squad will also need to quit turning the football over if they want any chance of knocking off 10th-ranked Indiana, as the Spartans are 120th among 124 FBS teams with 3.3 giveaways per game.

Tom Allen and the Hoosiers enter as 7.5-point favorites on the road hoping to remain unbeaten ahead of their matchup with Ohio State next Saturday. Prediction Machine’s NCAAF model predicts Indiana will win with relative ease, projecting a final score of 34.9-22.4 in favor of the visitors.

With a spread of 7.5 points and a projected victory well into the double digits, we have a solid edge on Allen’s squad against the spread. Our model suggests a $102 wager on INDIANA -7.5 for an average $100 bettor.

Prediction Machine’s NCAAF picks are 122-121 ATS (50.2%) and 143-88 on O/Us (61.9%) in 2020, profiting +22.62 units, or $2,262 for an average $100 bettor. Head over to predictionmachine.com to sign up for a free trial and get access to every NCAAF projection.

Why will Indiana cover the spread?

  • Tom Allen’s defense has the upper hand in this matchup against the Spartans’ mediocre offense. The Hoosiers have made life difficult on opposing quarterbacks through three games, having intercepted seven passes while surrendering eight passing TDs. They’ve also sacked opposing QBs eight times through three games, which is second-most in the Big Ten. Rocky Lombardi has already thrown five interceptions for the Spartans this season, so look for Indiana’s defense to pressure Lombardi and force more errant throws from the junior QB.
  • Although these two teams have near identical yards per play numbers on offense (both averaging 4.9 yards per play), Indiana has consistently sustained drives and put itself in position to score while Michigan State has done the opposite. Indiana’s 5.3 red-zone trips per game ranks 14th overall and third in the Big Ten, while Michigan State is fourth-worst in the country at 1.7 red-zone trips per game. Conversely, the Spartans have allowed opposing offenses to reach the red zone 5.0 times per game (104th) while Indiana has allowed 3.0 red-zone trips to opponents. We’re expecting the Hoosiers to get in scoring position often on Saturday, increasing their chances to put touchdowns on the board and cover the current two-score spread.

Hoosiers vs Spartans: How to bet the total

This matchup currently features an OVER/UNDER of 52 points. Prediction Machine’s projected score totals 57.3 points (34.9-22.4), giving us a large edge on the OVER in this one. Our model suggests a $125 wager on OVER 52 for an average $100 bettor.