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NCAAF Free Pick: Liberty Flames vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Prediction Machine NCAAF Free Pick: Liberty Flames vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Liberty Flames vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (CC -7, O/U 59)

Liberty and Coastal Carolina will square off in this weekend’s FBC Mortgage Cure Bowl with just one loss between the two teams.

Both squads enter ranked in the AP Top 25, with the Chanticleers breaking into the top 10 at No. 9 and Liberty landing at No. 23. Neither team is reflected as strongly in the College Football Playoff rankings, as the committee has made it clear a team from outside the Power Five conferences would have to win 100 straight games to even enter the conversation of finishing in the top four.

Sportsbooks are favoring the undefeated Chanticleers in this one, currently listing them as 7-point favorites. Coastal Carolina boasts a perfectly balanced offense entering its first bowl game since becoming an FBS program in 2016, averaging 223 rushing yards and 223 passing yards per game. Liberty does the majority of its damage on the ground, amassing 252 rushing yards per game thanks to mobile quarterback Malik Willis, who leads the team with 6.7 yards per rush attempt and 10 rushing TDs.

Our model currently gives a sizable edge to the Chanticleers in this particular matchup, projecting a final score of 36.4-22.6 in favor of Coastal Carolina. With a near two-touchdown projected margin of victory and a spread of -7, our model suggests a $128 wager on COASTAL CAROLINA -7 for an average $100 bettor.

Prediction Machine’s NCAAF picks are 516-485 ATS (51.5%) and 556-420 on O/Us (57.0%) since the start of 2019, profiting +60.0 units, or $6,000 for an average $100 bettor. Head over to predictionmachine.com to sign up for a free trial and get access to every NCAAF projection.

Why will Coastal Carolina cover the spread?

  • The Chanticleers’ offensive balance will be difficult for the Liberty defense to contain. Starting QB Grayson McCall has been elite this season with 10.0 yards per pass attempt (6th among QBs with 200+ pass attempts) and a sparkling 23-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Their rushing attack is also one of the nation’s best, ranking 27th with 5.0 yards per carry.
  • Liberty has struggled to turn red-zone possessions into points, ranking 102nd among 127 teams with 76.6 percent of their trips ending in a score. The Chanticleers have been much more proficient in their red-zone opportunities, ranking 37th by converting 86.3 percent of the time, with 42 of their 48 scores resulting in a touchdown.
  • Coastal Carolina’s defense should be able to limit the Flames’ dynamic rushing attack, which ranks ninth among FBS teams with 5.6 yards per carry. The Chanticleers rank in the top half of college football with 4.2 yards per carry allowed and are anchored on defense by senior linebackers Silas Kelly and Teddy Gallagher. Those two along with redshirt junior linebacker Enock Makonzo lead the team in tackles and should help contain Willis on quarterback scrambles and designed runs.

Flames vs Chanticleers: How to bet the total

This matchup currently features an OVER/UNDER of 59 points. Prediction Machine’s projected score totals 59.0 points exactly (36.4-22.6), giving us no edge on the current total in this game.