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NCAAF Free Pick: Liberty Flames vs Syracuse Orange

Prediction Machine NCAAF Free Pick: Liberty Flames vs Syracuse Orange

Liberty Flames vs Syracuse Orange (LIB -3.5, O/U 53)

The Liberty Flames hit the road to New York in hopes of remaining unbeaten. Hosting them in the Carrier Dome will be the Syracuse Orange, who are excited to see a non-ACC opponent after a rough 1-3 start to the season.

The Orange will attempt to slow down Malik Willis, who is totaling over 300 yards per game thanks to his dual-threat ability. The Syracuse offense will be operating without starting quarterback Tommy DeVito after a season-ending injury, so Liberty will be tasked with stopping Rex Culpepper on defense. Liberty enters this road matchup as a 3.5-point favorite.

Our model is expecting Liberty to handle this matchup with relative ease, projecting a final score of 34.3-23.6 in favor of the Flames. With a projected double-digit victory and the spread sitting at 3.5 points, we have a sizable edge on the visiting Flames. Our model suggests a $135 wager on LIBERTY -3.5 for an average $100 bettor.

Prediction Machine’s NCAAF picks went 322-275 ATS (53.9%) and 321-249 on O/Us (56.3%) in 2019, profiting +55.29 units, or $5,529 for an average $100 bettor. Head over to predictionmachine.com to sign up for a free trial and get access to every NCAAF projection.

Why will Liberty cover the spread?

  • The Flames wield one of the nation’s best rushing attacks through four games, averaging the seventh-most rushing yards per game at 250.8. It’s not just a volume-based total, as Liberty owns a healthy 5.2 yards per carry on the season, which ranks 13th in the country. Syracuse has been vulnerable on the ground defensively, allowing 4.8 yards per carry and a seventh-most 231.2 rushing yards per game.
  • Malik Willis is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback for the Flames, averaging nearly 200 yards passing per game as well as 113.3 yards rushing per contest. Syracuse’s defense has hemorrhaged yards this year, allowing opponents to rack up 475.8 yards per game.
  • Syracuse currently sports one of the worst offenses in the country. Their 3.8 yards per play ranks dead last among 76 FBS teams, and their 19.2 points per game is in the bottom 10 as well. Liberty’s defense has been solid thus far, allowing 4.6 yards per play, which ranks 15th-best among FBS schools.

Flames at Orange: How to bet the total

This matchup currently features an OVER/UNDER of 53. Prediction Machine’s projected score totals 57.9 points (34.3-23.6), giving us a solid edge on the OVER in this one. Our model suggests a $117 wager on OVER 53 for an average $100 bettor.