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NCAAF Free Pick From Linebacker: Louisville Cardinals vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons

NCAAF Free Pick From Linebacker Week 7

Louisville Cardinals @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons (WF -6.5, O/U 64.5)

Wake Forest will host the Louisville Cardinals this Saturday after having a bye week in Week 6. The Demon Deacons are looking to improve on their 5-0 record and No. 19 ranking in the AP poll, while Louisville is aiming for a second consecutive conference win after taking down Boston College. This game sets up to be a high-flying affair thanks to a 64.5-point total. Wake Forest is currently listed as a 6.5-point favorite, and our model likes them to cover that margin on Saturday. The Linebacker predicts a final score of 39.2 - 27.1 in favor of the Demon Deacons, giving us a sizable wager on Wake. We suggest a $111 bet on Wake Forest -6.5 for an average $100 bettor.

The Linebacker’s NCAAF picks are 153-114 ATS (57.3%) and 146-109 on OVER/UNDERs (57.2%) over the first six weeks, profiting +38.43 units or $3,843 for an average $100 bettor. Head over to thelinebacker.com to sign up for a free trial and get access to EVERY NCAAF Week 7 prediction.

Why Will Wake Forest Cover the Spread?

  • The Demon Deacons average 515 total yards per game, good for 11th-most in the country. In Louisville’s three games against Power 5 conference opponents, they’ve surrendered 502.7 yards per game and at least 35 points in every contest.
  • Wake Forest enters with an extreme edge on third downs. Their offense ranks fifth-best in the country with a 54.4 percent conversion rate on third down, while their defense is ranked ninth-best, allowing just 25.7 percent of opponent third downs to be converted. Louisville has been much more mediocre, ranking 92nd in third-down conversion (36.5%) and 41st in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert 33.9 percent of the time.
  • Louisville’s offensive line has given up a ton of negative plays thus far. They’ve allowed 8.75 tackles for a loss per game, which ranks 122nd among 130 FBS teams, and their 3.25 sacks allowed per game ranks 117th.
  • The turnover margin favors Wake entering Saturday. The Demon Deacons have forced seven turnovers and surrendered four (+3), while Louisville has lost seven turnovers and gained five (-2).
  • Wake Forest has been an extremely disciplined team this season, committing only 3.2 penalties (second-fewest) for 27.6 yards per game (third-fewest). The Cardinals have struggled a bit more giving up free yards this season, averaging 6.5 penalties and 50.8 penalty yards per game.

Louisville @ Wake Forest: How to Bet the Total

This game currently features an OVER/UNDER of 64.5. The Linebacker’s projected score totals 66.3 points (39.2 - 27.1), giving us a slight edge on the OVER in this one. Our model suggests a $41 wager on OVER 64.5 for an average $100 bettor.