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NCAAF Free Pick From Linebacker: Mississippi State vs Auburn

NCAAF Free Pick From Linebacker: Mississippi State vs Auburn Tigers

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Auburn Tigers (AUB -11, O/U 46.5)

Auburn’s first SEC home game comes against the Mississippi State Bulldogs, who enter as 11-point underdogs after winning last year’s matchup 23-9. The Bulldogs get to face true freshman Bo Nix for the first time, as Nix has led the Tigers to a 4-0 record and a No. 7 ranking. Auburn is looking to avenge last year’s road loss, and our model believes they will. We project the Tigers will win 25.9 - 20.3, giving the edge to the Bulldogs against the spread. With the line currently at 11 points and a projected margin of victory of 5.6, we have a sizable wager on Mississippi State. Our model suggests a wager of $105 on the Bulldogs +11 for an average $100 bettor.

The Linebacker’s NCAAF picks are 99-71 ATS (58.2%) and 95-64 on OVER/UNDERs (59.7%) over the first four weeks, profiting +31.52 units, or $3,152 for an average $100 bettor. Head over to thelinebacker.com to sign up for a free trial, and get access to EVERY NCAAF Week 5 prediction.

Why Will Mississippi State Cover the Spread?

  • The Bulldogs lead the SEC and the nation with 11 turnovers forced on the season. They’re an aggressive defense who will throw everything they can at true freshman quarterback Bo Nix.
  • Both teams employ a successful run-first offense, as they each rank in the top 30 in rushing yards per game. That along with a game total of 46.5 points infer this will be a low-scoring affair, increasing the probability Mississippi State will cover as two-score underdogs.
  • Mississippi State should hold the edge in red-zone scoring. They’ve been extremely efficient in that department this season, scoring 12 touchdowns on 16 red-zone appearances. The Bulldogs have allowed opponents to score touchdowns on just eight of 15 red-zone appearances, while Auburn has reached pay dirt on only 12 of their 19 red-zone visits.
  • Auburn’s defensive strength lies mainly in their defensive front, which has produced 29 tackles for a loss and 11 sacks in four games. Mississippi State’s offense hasn’t given up many negative plays this year, ranking 32nd in the country with 18 total tackles for a loss allowed.

Mississippi State @ Auburn: How to Bet the Total

This game currently features an OVER/UNDER of 46.5. The Linebacker’s projected score totals 46.2 points (25.9 - 20.3), giving us no edge on the OVER or UNDER in this matchup.