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NCAAF Free Pick: LSU Tigers vs Missouri Tigers

Prediction Machine NCAAF Free Pick: LSU Tigers vs Missouri Tigers

LSU Tigers vs Missouri Tigers (LSU -20.5, O/U 50.5)

Missouri head coach Eliah Drinkwitz will look for his first victory in his new head coaching role against last year’s national champions. LSU fell short in its season opener against Mississippi State but had a get-right game against Vanderbilt, shellacking the Commodores 41-7. Ed Orgeron’s team will look to duplicate that performance against Missouri, which enters this SEC matchup as a major underdog. LSU is currently listed as a 20.5-point favorite over Missouri, but our college football model thinks that’s a bit too conservative.

Our model is expecting it to be a one-sided affair Saturday, projecting a final score of 40.7-12.1 in favor of LSU. With a projected four-touchdown victory and the spread sitting around a three-touchdown difference, we have a sizable edge on the reigning champs. Our model suggests a $147 wager on LSU -20.5 for an average $100 bettor.

Prediction Machine’s NCAAF picks went 322-275 ATS (53.9%) and 321-249 on O/Us (56.3%) in 2019, profiting +55.29 units, or $5,529 for an average $100 bettor. Head over to predictionmachine.com to sign up for a free trial and get access to every NCAAF projection.

Why will LSU cover the spread?

  • Missouri has struggled to get much going offensively through two games. Their 4.8 yards per play ranks 55th out of 74 qualified teams and their 15.5 points per game ranks 68th. Their offense would look even worse if not for a fourth-quarter touchdown as time expired in their 38-19 loss against Alabama.
  • Missouri’s offensive dysfunction starts at the quarterback position, where redshirt freshman Connor Bazelak and junior Shawn Robinson have split time this season. Bazelak has been announced as the starter heading into Saturday’s matchup, but it might not make a difference against Ed Orgeron’s defense. LSU has forced six turnovers through two games, picking off opposing QBs four times already.
  • Myles Brennan should have no issues picking apart a Missouri secondary that’s allowed 9.0 yards per pass attempt (60th among 74 teams). They haven’t even been tested much through the air, as Alabama and Tennessee combined to rush 87 times compared to 55 pass attempts against Mizzou, totaling seven touchdowns in the process. LSU should have no issues moving the ball through the air or on the ground.

LSU vs Missouri: How to bet the total

This matchup currently features an OVER/UNDER of 50.5. Prediction Machine’s projected score totals 52.8 points (40.7-12.1), giving us a slight edge on the OVER in this one. Our model suggests a $53 wager on OVER 50.5 for an average $100 bettor.