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NCAAF Free Pick: Ole Miss Rebels vs Kentucky Wildcats

NCAAF Free Pick Ole Miss Rebels vs Kentucky Wildcats

Ole Miss Rebels at Kentucky Wildcats (UK -6.5, O/U 61.5)

Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss head out on the road in search of their first win of the season. They’ll be entertained by the Kentucky Wildcats, who are also winless after a loss to Auburn in their season opener.

Kentucky will need to keep up with the Rebels offensively to have a chance in this one, as Ole Miss put up 35 points and over 600 yards in last week’s matchup with the Florida Gators. It’ll be interesting to see who steps up for the Wildcats, as leading 2019 rusher and receiver Lynn Bowden moved on to the NFL. Sportsbooks are still giving the edge to Kentucky, currently listing the Wildcats as 6.5-point favorites over the visiting Rebels.

Our model is expecting it to be a tight battle between these two SEC foes, projecting a final score of 30.0-28.3 in favor of the Wildcats. Although we’re predicting Kentucky to win outright, we’re identifying an edge on the Rebels against the spread. Our model suggests a $93 wager on OLE MISS +6.5 for an average $100 bettor.

Prediction Machine’s NCAAF picks went 322-275 ATS (53.9%) and 321-249 on O/Us (56.3%) in 2019, profiting +55.29 units, or $5,529 for an average $100 bettor. Head over to predictionmachine.com to sign up for a free trial and get access to every NCAAF projection.

Why will Ole Miss cover the spread?

  • The Rebels are second in all of college football with 13.4 yards per pass attempt on the young season. They accomplished this feat against a Florida defense that finished 35th in that category in 2019, allowing just 6.9 yards per pass attempt over the full season. Kentucky allowed 8.6 yards per pass attempt in its opening matchup against Auburn and now faces an equally talented offense in Ole Miss.
  • The Wildcats are a slower-paced run control team and don’t seem to have the offensive makeup to pull away from the Rebels. We’re expecting this to be a tight game that will finish UNDER the projected total of 61.5.

Rebels at Wildcats: How to bet the total

This matchup currently features an OVER/UNDER of 61.5. Prediction Machine’s projected score totals 58.3 points (30.0-28.3), giving us an edge on the UNDER in this one. Our model suggests a $79 wager on UNDER 61.5 for an average $100 bettor.