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NCAAF Free Pick: Oregon Ducks vs USC Trojans

NCAAF Free Pick: Oregon Ducks vs USC Trojans

Oregon Ducks vs USC Trojans (USC +5, O/U 62.5)

Justin Herbert and the Ducks head to the Coliseum on Saturday night to square off with the Pac-12 South-leading USC Trojans. Oregon is hoping to retain its top-10 ranking with a win against Clay Helton’s 5-3 Trojans, while USC is looking to knock off a second top-10 team at home this season. The Trojans will enter as underdogs on their home field, however, with Oregon currently being listed as a 5-point favorite.

Our model believes the Ducks will win the game and cover the spread, projecting a final score of 36.3 - 25.6 in favor of Oregon. With a margin of victory nearing 11 points, we have a strong bet on the visiting Ducks. Our model suggests a wager of $114 on OREGON -5 for an average $100 bettor.

The Linebacker’s NCAAF picks are 226-193 ATS (53.9%) and 231-170 on OVER/UNDERs (57.6%) over the first nine weeks, profiting +50.84 units, or $5,084 for an average $100 bettor. Head over to thelinebacker.com to sign up for a free trial, and get access to EVERY NCAAF Week 10 prediction.

Why Will Oregon Cover the Spread?

  • Oregon’s defense has been stifling this season. It ranks in the top 20 in several key defensive statistics, having allowed just 4.6 yards per play (19th), 16.4 points per game (11th), a 31.78 percent opponent third-down conversion rate (16th), and a 69.57 percent red-zone scoring rate to opponents (10th).
  • The Ducks have excelled at turning teams over, especially in the interception department. They lead the nation with 14 INTs, and true freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis has thrown four interceptions in his five full games with the Trojans. Oregon enters third in the nation with a +11 turnover margin, while USC is near the bottom with a -6 margin (118th).
  • Oregon enters with the advantage in the rushing game. The Ducks have averaged 5.1 yards per carry on offense (33rd), while USC is allowing 4.9 yards per carry on defense (94th). USC isn’t far behind Oregon on the offensive side with 4.5 yards per carry (57th), but the Ducks have been stout against the run, surrendering a measly 3.5 yards per carry (25th).
  • USC’s defense has been average at best this season, allowing 5.6 yards per play (71st) and not excelling in any specific category. Senior QB Justin Herbert should have his way with a secondary allowing 6.9 yards per pass attempt (44th) and a 59.9 percent completion rate (65th) to opposing signal-callers.

Oregon @ USC: How to Bet the Total

This game currently features an OVER/UNDER of 62.5. The Linebacker’s projected score totals 61.9 points (36.3 - 25.6), giving us a very slight edge on the UNDER in this one. Our model suggests a $4 wager on UNDER 62.5 for an average $100 bettor.