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NCAAF Free Pick: West Virginia Mountaineers vs Kansas State Wildcats

NCAAF Free Pick: West Virginia Mountaineers vs Kansas State Wildcats

West Virginia Mountaineers vs Kansas State Wildcats (KSU -14, O/U 47.5)

Kansas State will host conference foe West Virginia in Manhattan this Saturday. The Wildcats lost in Week 11 on a last-second field goal against Texas, ending their three-game winning streak. The Mountaineers enter Saturday’s matchup on a five-game losing streak and are looking for just their second conference victory of the season. Kansas State is currently listed as a two-touchdown favorite at home, and our model thinks the Wildcats have a solid chance to post a three-score victory.

The Linebacker’s model projects Kansas State will win by a score of 32.9 - 14.3 over the Mountaineers, giving us a solid edge on the 14-point spread. We suggest a wager of $94 on KANSAS ST -14 for an average $100 bettor.

The Linebacker’s NCAAF picks are 260-223 ATS (53.8%) and 265-205 on OVER/UNDERs (56.3%) over the first 11 weeks, profiting +56.32 units, or $5,632 for an average $100 bettor. Head over to thelinebacker.com to sign up for a free trial and get access to EVERY NCAAF Week 12 prediction.

Why Will Kansas State Cover the Spread?

  • West Virginia should struggle moving the ball against a solid Wildcats defense. Kansas State’s main weakness has been stopping the run, surrendering a healthy 5.3 yards per carry on the season (112th). Unfortunately for the Mountaineers, they possess one of the worst rushing attacks in all of college football. Their 2.8 yards per carry is the fifth-lowest mark in the FBS, while their 75.8 yards rushing per game are the third-fewest in college football.
  • The Mountaineers have taken a pass-heavy approach thanks to their putrid run game. Their passing play rate of 58.02 percent is the seventh-highest mark in college football, a strategy that likely won’t pay dividends against a tough Kansas State pass defense. Outside of the Oklahoma game where Jalen Hurts averaged an incredible 15.2 yards per attempt, the Wildcats have allowed 6.6 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 21st in the country. That’s the exact mark WVU has averaged on offense, which comes in at 97th in the country among offenses.
  • Kansas State should own third downs against the Mountaineers. West Virginia has really struggled keeping drives alive, ranking 108th in the country with a 35.0 percent conversion rate on third down. The Wildcats have been amazing on third down thus far, ranking third in the country with a 26.0 percent conversion rate allowed to opponents.
  • West Virginia has been one of the worst teams in college football in the turnover department. The Mountaineers average 2.1 giveaways per game (121st) and only 0.9 takeaways (117th). Combine those two stats and their turnover margin ranks 117th in the country.

West Virginia @ Kansas State: How to Bet the Total

This Big 12 showdown currently features an OVER/UNDER of 47.5. The Linebacker’s projected score totals 47.2 points (32.9 - 14.3), giving us no suggested wager on the total in this matchup.