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NFL Free Pick from Linebacker: Chiefs vs Seahawks

Chiefs vs Seahawks Free Pick from Linebacker

Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA +2.5, O/U 53.5)

Patrick Mahomes and the 11-3 Chiefs head on the road to battle the Seahawks in Seattle. Kansas City enters as the 2.5-point road favorite, but The Linebacker projects the game will turn out a bit differently than expected. The Linebacker predicts a final score of 28.9 - 24.3 in favor of the Seahawks, giving us a strong play on the spread for Seattle. We suggest a wager of $93 on Seattle +2.5 for a $100 average bettor. 

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Why will Seattle cover the spread?

  • The Seahawks should terrorize this KC defense on the ground. Seattle’s 154.9 rushing yards per game leads the NFL, with its efficiency not far behind. The Seahawks rank eighth with 4.7 yards per carry. Kansas City is allowing a league-worst 5.0 yards per carry, giving the Seahawks a major edge on the ground in this one.
  • The Chiefs have allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns this season (17).
  • Seattle has been a great red-zone defense this season, allowing opponents to score a touchdown on only 48.9 percent of their red-zone trips, fifth-best in the league. Kansas City is second in the league with 4.6 red-zone trips per game, so the Seahawks will need to keep up their stout defense near the goal line.
  • Russell Wilson has posted a similar efficiency to Patrick Mahomes this season, posting a rating of 111.6 vs Mahomes’ 114.8. His 31:6 TD:INT ratio is on its way to Mahomes’ 45:11, with Mahomes holding the lead thanks to 173 more pass attempts.
  • Seattle ranks fifth in time of possession this season. Running the ball will limit the Chiefs’ offensive possessions, giving Seattle a better chance to hold on for the victory.

How to bet the total in Chiefs @ Seahawks:

The Linebacker projects a final score of 28.9 - 24.3 in favor of the Seahawks. With 53.2 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 53.5, we have no suggestion on betting the total in this game.

Need-to-know stats for Chiefs @ Seahawks:

  • 20 carries, 104.2 yards
    2 catches, 19.9 yards - With the Seahawks expected to trample KC in the running game, Chris Carson projects to clear 100 yards on the ground. Carson should have an efficient outing, projecting for 5.21 yards per carry. With Rashaad Penny sidelined, he could see a few more routes on Sunday as well. He averaged two catches for 20 yards in our simulations.
  • 4 catches, 55.0 yards, 0.35 TDs - Tyler Lockett projects to be the top receiver for Seattle. He’s tied with Doug Baldwin with four projected catches, but his 55 yards outdo Baldwin. Lockett ranks 14th among WRs with 15.7 yards per catch, and his nine touchdowns are tied for seventh in the league. He averaged 0.35 receiving TDs in our simulations.
  • 23-33, 282.6 yards, 1.53 TDs - Patrick Mahomes should still have a good game against a Seattle secondary that ranks 25th in yards per attempt allowed to opposing QBs (7.8). The main reason Mahomes’ yardage projection is down is thanks to his 33 projected attempts. We expect Seattle to slow the game down with the run, so Mahomes may not reach the 37 attempts he currently averages.
  • 6 catches, 77.6 yards, 0.52 TDs - Travis Kelce grades out as KC’s top passing option in this one. He leads the team with six projected catches for 77.6 yards, as well as his 0.52 projected TDs. Kelce leads all NFL tight ends in receptions, yards and touchdowns, so it’s no surprise he leads our projections heading into Sunday’s matchup.

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