After their football program was shuttered for two years, the University of Alabama-Birmingham Blazers have flipped the script, competed the past two seasons and boast an 18-8 overall record to date, a Conference USA championship this season and back-to-back bowl appearances. With their win over Middle Tennessee in the Conference USA title game, UAB is 10-3 overall and 9-4 against the spread heading into the Boca Raton Bowl. What’s even more impressive is that over their past 30 games, dating back before the program’s temporary pause, the Blazers are 20-10 straight up and 20-9-1 against the spread.
Despite a five-game conference winning streak during the season, Northern Illinois limped to the finish line as it lost two of three before a touchdown late in the fourth quarter snatched the Mid-American Conference championship away from the University of Buffalo. The Huskies are 8-5 overall and 7-6 against the spread, but are 4-2 ATS over their past six games.
UAB opened as a 1-point underdog but has remained steady as a 2.5-point favorite for most of the last week. The Northern Illinois moneyline is +115 and the point total opened at 43 before a slight uptick to 44 in what is projected to be a low-scoring affair. This is noteworthy because the average point total in four previous Boca Raton Bowls is 64.8.
- The NIU Huskies are 0-5 straight up and ATS in their last five bowl games.
- The OVER has hit in three straight NIU bowl games.
- The OVER has hit in four of the past five UAB games this season.
Alabama-Birmingham vs Northern Illinois Boca Raton Bowl Game Center
WHAT WE KNOW/LEARNED: REGULAR SEASON
Alabama-Birmingham – Granted, they don’t compete in the SEC, but statistically, the Blazers do possess one of the nation’s top defenses. UAB allowed just 17.9 points per game this season – ninth-best nationally – and are 16th against the pass, 20th against the rush, and hold opposing offenses to the second-lowest conversion rate on third downs at 25 percent. If the Huskies face down and distance often, forget about it, the Blazers have the advantage.
UAB’s 100th-ranked passing game is a little bit of a mystery as their head coach wouldn’t commit to either A.J. Erdely or Tyler Johnston starting this game. Erdely has a shoulder injury that will need to be cleaned up after the season, but with him being a senior, it’s hard to picture him not being on the field for most if not all of this game. Where the Blazers truly have the advantage is in the backfield as sophomore running back Spencer Brown finished the regular season seventh in rushing touchdowns with 16 and 40th in rushing yards per game at 88.4. He finished with 18 or more rush attempts in 11 of the Blazers’ 13 games and scored at least one touchdown in all but two games. He IS the Blazers offense.
Northern Illinois – On paper, the Huskies’ 14th-ranked rush defense that has allowed just 109.7 rush yards per game this season appears up to the challenge. However, all that glitters is not gold when eight of NIU’s games were played against weak MAC competition. Plus, they just allowed 142 rush yards to Buffalo in the MAC championship and five rushing touchdowns over the past two games. Though good, NIU’s rush defense is far from perfect.
The defense will have to find a way, however, as Northern Illinois’ offense ranks 110th in trips to the red zone this season with 35 in 13 games. They’re ranked 123rd in total yards per game, 120th in points per game and pass yards per game and 100th on third-down conversions.
BOCA RATON, FL FORECAST AND KICKERS
Beautiful with temperatures in the low to mid-60s at kickoff, low humidity and only a 10 percent chance of rain.
UAB’s junior kicker Nick Vogel has struggled from beyond 40 yards this season, connecting on just two of 11, but he is 10-for-10 from inside the 40. He’s 47-for-48 on extra points. NIU’s senior kicker Andrew Gantz is 11-for-16 on field-goal attempts and 28-for-28 on extra points.
MY LEAN
Neither team is going to pass its way to victory in this contest. So, with the run-focused offenses comes a running clock and potentially a shorter game. Each possession will be critical, but I can’t stress enough that postseason bowl games are not matchups where defensive efficiency is often applauded. The Boca Raton Bowl is a beach bowl where guys who have played their butts off for 13 games are going to try to light up the scoreboard. For the Blazers, that’s via Spencer Brown and for the Huskies that’s via a pick-six or turnover that hands quarterback Marcus Childers a short-field. I just hope the Huskies score enough.
I’m leaning the Blazers to cover the 2.5 and for the OVER 44 to hit. For as good as the UAB and NIU defenses have performed this season, the Blazers have allowed 29 points per game over their past four and the Huskies have allowed 28.5 over their past two.
