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Notre Dame Slight Home Favorite vs North Carolina

The No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) are 19-1 SU and 12-8 ATS in their last 20 games at home. The Fighting Irish will look to continue their strong home play with a win over the North Carolina Tar Heels (4-3, 3-4) on Saturday night in South Bend.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
  • Date/Time: October 30, 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Notre Dame Stadium
  • TV Coverage: NBC
  • Opening Odds: Notre Dame -3.5 | O/U 63 (Line History)
  • North Carolina vs Notre Dame Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

The betting line on this matchup has remained steady since the Fighting Irish opened as 3.5-point favorites. The total has moved down slightly to 62.5 points since opening at 63 points. The OVER is 5-2 in Notre Dame’s last seven games vs ACC opponents.

North Carolina News & Notes

The Tar Heels bounced back from a disappointing 35-25 loss to the Florida State Seminoles as 17.5-point favorites in their last game with a 45-42 win over the Miami Hurricanes.

North Carolina improved to 4-3 SU with the win but failed to cover the spread again as a 7.5-point favorite. Sam Howell had 154 passing yards and two passing touchdowns to go along with 98 rushing yards and two rushing scores in the win.

Howell has compiled 1,851 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, 494 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns this season. The junior quarterback has been a fairly consistent positive for North Carolina while the defense has left plenty to be desired, allowing 378.6 total yards and 28.9 points per game.

Notre Dame News & Notes

Kyren Williams racked up 138 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns and added another 42 receiving yards on six catches in Notre Dame’s 31-16 win over USC last Saturday. The Fighting Irish improved to 4-1 SU and ATS over their last five games with the win. Their only loss over that stretch came against the No. 2 Cincinnati Bearcats.

This has been a consistent issue for the Fighting Irish during the Brian Kelly era. Kelly has led the team to 10 or more wins in each of the last four seasons and to a national ranking of No. 12 or better in all four of those seasons as well. But against top-tier teams like Cincinnati this season, Notre Dame has fallen short.

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How North Carolina Will Cover

Notre Dame’s offense has been pretty consistent and isn’t likely to get tripped up by North Carolina’s defense. The Tar Heels’ most realistic path to a cover or an outright upset is to win in a shootout, which they have the offensive tools to accomplish.

How Notre Dame Will Cover

Notre Dame’s offense has been hit-or-miss this season, but over the team’s last five games the Fighting Irish have allowed only 19 points per game. Another solid defensive performance at home would in all likelihood lead to a win and cover.

Computer Pick: UNC +3.5

For all your college football Week 9 predictions, see our college football computer picks page.

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Shark Bites
  • North Carolina is 4-8 ATS over its last 12 games.
  • Notre Dame is 25-0 SU in its last 25 as a home favorite.
  • The OVER is 10-5 in North Carolina’s last 15 games.