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UNC Looks to End Seminoles' Home Streak

This Week 5 game between UNC and FSU offers a massive opportunity for the Tar Heels. The Seminoles are not nearly the team that was once ranked in the top two and this is the second-last game for UNC against a team currently ranked in the Top 25. The Tar Heels beat FSU the last time they matched up, and if they can do it again this week, they should be able to squeak into the rankings.

  • Florida State is 22-0 SU in its last 22 games at home.
  • The visiting team is 5-0 ATS in its last five games in this matchup.
  • North Carolina is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games against its conference.

Both teams are 3-1 on the season but Florida State’s loss was arguably much more seminal than North Carolina’s. FSU was absolutely decimated, embarrassed, thrashed, insert verb here’d when they faced Louisville two weeks ago, but rebounded last weekend with a 20-point win against the University of Central Florida that cashed the spread for Seminole bettors.

Both teams have also gone 2-2 against the spread this season and Florida State opened as 12-point favorites. The Seminoles own the all-time series with the Tar Heels but these teams have not played since 2010 when North Carolina took a 37-35 contest in Tallahassee. Although FSU has won 22 straight games, they are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 so the door is definitely open.

UNC squeaked out a one-point victory last week against Pitt in a game that went over by six points. These teams’ games have gone OVER in all but one of their games so far this season and the total has gone OVER in the last three matchups between UNC and FSU – I would call that a trend.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The North Carolina Tar Heels were listed as 12-point underdogs on the opening NCAA football line at BetOnline and most sportsbooks tracked by Odds Shark. No total was available early in the week, check out the odds pages here or Bovada for updates.

Prediction-scoring formulas run on this game pick a potential 29-24 result in favor of the Seminoles. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NCAAF matchups here.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Florida State Seminoles Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

This season the Florida State Seminoles are 3-1 overall and 2-2 ATS against the spread, while the Tar Heels are 3-1 and 2-2 ATS. As for the totals, Florida State is 3-0 on the OU, and North Carolina is 3-1 Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Florida State vs North Carolina injuries news.

The Florida State Seminoles sit at No. 39 in the current College Football Power Rankings here at Odds Shark, while the North Carolina Tar Heels are at No. 20 on that chart.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits Florida State's No. 16-ranked offense, averaging 43 PPG, against a North Carolina defense that ranks No. 89 this week at 30 PPG. The Florida State aerial game is averaging 242.5 yards per game, more than the North Carolina Tar Heels secondary allows through the air, 184.5 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the North Carolina Tar Heels own the league's No. 64-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 182 yards per game when on the road. Florida State, on the other hand, rates No. 87 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

In their last game, North Carolina's aerial attack generated 453 yards and the Tar Heels came away with a 37-36 victory over Pittsburgh at Kenan Stadium.

Dalvin Cook went over the 100-yard mark (267) in his team's latest effort as Florida State defeated USF by a score of 55-35 on Saturday.

Betting Trends
  • North Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
  • North Carolina is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of North Carolina's last 7 games
  • North Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
  • Florida State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
  • Florida State is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games
  • Florida State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
  • Florida State is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

North Carolina home to Virginia Tech, Saturday, October 8th
Florida State at Miami-FL, Saturday, October 8th