The No. 16 Miami Hurricanes have won three straight games and now play host to the North Carolina Tar Heels, who are coming off their first win of the season. The Hurricanes picked up a 24-19 road victory against the Tar Heels last season and opened this week’s matchup as an 18.5-point favorite. The last five meetings between these two schools have had an average combined score of 54.6 and their total this week opened at 55.5 points.
- The total has gone UNDER in five of North Carolina’s last six games vs Miami (avg. combined score: 50.83).
- Miami is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home.
- Miami is 3-1 ATS in its last four home games vs UNC.
North Carolina vs Miami Game Center
UNC looks to rally behind first win of the season
North Carolina opened the season with back-to-back road losses and had its Week 3 game canceled due to hurricane Florence. However, the Tar Heels put in a good performance to edge out Pitt 38-35 in Week 4 at home. Quarterback Nathan Elliott was good in the victory, throwing for 313 yards and two touchdowns, while running back Antonio Williams scampered for 114 yards and two touchdowns of his own. Pitt went into halftime leading 28-21, but UNC’s defense stepped up in the second half, holding the Panthers to just seven points.
The Tar Heels aren’t going to be pulling off too many upsets during the 2018 season as they have troubles on both sides of the ball. Offensively, UNC ranks 101st in the nation, scoring an average of 24.7 points per game, while defensively it ranks 104th, allowing 33.3 points per game. Additionally, Nathan Elliott has thrown for 669 yards through the first three games which is good for 83rd in the nation, although he has played one fewer game than many of the QBs above him. However, he has given up four interceptions while throwing just three touchdowns.
Well-balanced Miami squad looks to continue winning ways
Miami began the season in a horrible way with hopes of making the College Football Playoff. Then-No. 8 Miami had a tough task in then-No. 25 LSU in the season opener in a neutral-site contest at AT&T Stadium. The Tigers came out firing in that game, running up the score 27-3 heading into the half. The Hurricanes woke up in the second half, outscoring the Tigers 14-6, but still fell 33-17 overall. Since then, Miami has rattled off three straight wins, outscoring its opponents 157-41.
The Hurricanes have struck a good balance between offense and defense. Miami has surrendered an average of 18.5 points per game, which is the 29th-fewest in NCAA, while racking up an average of 43.5 points per game, good for a tie for 18th in the nation. The big question mark heading into this game is who will be under center for the Hurricanes?
Through the first three weeks, it had been senior Malik Rosier as the starting signal-caller for Miami, but things took a change last week vs Florida International. Freshman N’Kosi Perry entered the game on the third drive and played well for the rest of the game, going 17-for-25 for 224 yards, three touchdowns and one interception.
Perry was taking first-team reps at practice on Monday, and all signs point to him being the starter vs UNC on Thursday.
UNDER Trending between UNC and Miami
The Hurricanes and Tar Heels have gone UNDER in five of their last six meetings with an average combined score of 50.83 and Sportsbook has this week’s total Sportsbook at 55.5 points. Meanwhile, as mentioned above, Miami has the 29th-best defense, while UNC ranks 101st in offense, so points will be extremely hard to come by for the Tar Heels, which means the Hurricanes will have to carry the load to get up to 55.5 points. Last year, Miami went UNDER 55.5 points in three of its four home games vs the ACC. Lastly, the Tar Heels have gone UNDER in seven of their last 11 road games.
My take on Miami vs UNC
I like Miami to cover 18.5 points. The Hurricanes outscored Toledo by 25 points, and Florida International by 14 points. Why are these important? Well, Toledo averages 51 points per game, which is eighth-most in the nation, while ranking 99th in defense. Both of these rankings are better than UNC’s. Florida International ranks 83rd defensively, allowing 28.3 points per game, while scoring an average of 34 points per game which is 52nd in the NCAA, again much better than the Tar Heels. Lastly, Miami is 3-1 ATS in its last four home games vs UNC.
