For the first time in a long time, the Stanford Cardinal are dealing with reduced expectations – at least from the betting public – as they entertain the Northwestern Wildcats on Saturday in the season opener for both teams. Oddsmakers have set the season win total for the perennial Pac-12 powerhouse at 6.5; the team hasn’t won fewer than seven games in a season since 2008.
Northwestern Wildcats vs Stanford Cardinal (Matchup Report)
Date/Time: August 31, 4 p.m. ET
TV Coverage: FOX
Sportsbook Odds: Stanford -6.5 | O/U 47 (Line History)
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
Bettors were getting the Cardinal -6.5 when this line opened in June, and that’s exactly where the number sits as we head into game week. The total, on the other hand, has seen steady movement; it opened at 50 but has trickled all the way down to 46.5 in some spots, though 47 is the predominant number at the moment.
Northwestern News & Notes
There’s a good chance that Wildcats head coach Pat Fitzgerald will keep bettors in the dark on his starting quarterback for Week 1 until just before kickoff. Clemson five-star transfer Hunter Johnson and redshirt senior TJ Green are battling for the starting job, and Fitzgerald hasn’t tipped his hand; the pair have just 64 collegiate pass attempts between them.
The success of the defense could very well come down to the health and sustained production of standout linebacker Paddy Fisher, who was one of the best defensive players in the Big Ten and could be a candidate for the first round of next year’s NFL draft. Fisher will look to build upon an outstanding season in which he had 116 tackles and four forced fumbles.
Stanford News & Notes
With running back Bryce Love a virtual non-factor last season due to injury, it’s no surprise that Stanford underwhelmed in the ground game – and that played a major role in the Cardinal’s ho-hum 2018 season. And with Love, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Trenton Irwin and Kaden Smith all out of the picture, quarterback KJ Costello will have to rely on an entirely new cast of weapons.
The biggest thing going for Stanford might be an extra year of experience for a defense that saw nine freshmen or sophomores play a significant role in 2018. And the Cardinal should be much better against the pass with another year of development from second-year CB Paulson Adebo, who was the highest-rated cornerback in the Pac-12 last year according to Pro Football Focus.
Betting Pick
Stanford is just 5-9 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite – and with the Cardinal facing an incredible amount of offensive turnover and Northwestern traditionally one of the toughest road opponents in football, we like the road team in the points despite the Wildcats rolling with a relatively inexperienced quarterback.
- Northwestern is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 road games.
- The OVER is 7-3 in Stanford’s last 10 games overall.
- The OVER is 8-3-1 in the Wildcats’ last 12 road games.
