Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins plays against Michigan during an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 24, 2018, in Columbus, Ohio.

Big Ten Championship: Ohio State as a Two-Score Favorite vs Northwestern is not Enough

Flying high off a massive win against rival Michigan in The Game in their regular-season finale, the Ohio State Buckeyes now eye their third Big Ten championship in five years and a potential berth in the College Football Playoff – a berth that looked to be out of the question just a couple of weeks ago. Ohio State opened as a 14-point favorite against the West Division champion Northwestern Wildcats and the total had climbed to 61 as of Tuesday afternoon.

SHARK BITES
  • Northwestern is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs Ohio State (avg. losing margin: 30.83).
  • Ohio State is 0-3 ATS in its last three games after an ATS win.
  • Northwestern is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs its conference.

Northwestern vs Ohio State Big Ten Championship Game Center

Haskins Has Proved That No Defense Can Stop Him

Putting points on the board has not been a problem for Ohio State this season. Dwayne Haskins has set Ohio State single-season school records in completions (314), pass attempts (455), passing touchdowns (42), passing yards (4,081), completion percentage (69%) and total offense (4,130).

He was second only to Gardner Minshew in passing yards this season, had five more touchdown passes than runner-up Will Grier, and torched the FBS’ top defense from Michigan for 396 passing yards, six passing TDs and 62 points in The Game.

That’s not good news for Northwestern’s No. 79 pass defense that allowed 238 yards per game on average this season. Against comparable competition (although nobody is comparable to Dwayne Haskins at this juncture), the Wildcats gave up 343 yards in the air and another 121 on the ground vs Notre Dame and also 329 passing yards vs Michigan State.

Northwestern is 111th in Yards Per Game

Gaining yardage has not been the forte of this Northwestern team that has gotten by with above-average defensive play in winning the West Division of the Big Ten. Top receiving option Flynn Nagel is listed as questionable for the Big Ten championship after missing the season finale and that will make things even tougher on Clayton Thorson as he looks to go mano-a-mano with Haskins.

The Wildcats are near the bottom of the FBS in terms of points per game as well, scoring just 23.7 points on average. That’s the No. 108 scoring offense in the nation, worse than such teams as Ball State, East Carolina and Bowling Green.

My Bet for This Game

I am quite confident taking the 14-point favorites from Ohio State playing indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. This is the first time that Northwestern has ever played in the Big Ten championship while the majority of this Ohio State team was here last year in the exact same building with the exact same stakes.

The emphasis on winning will be underscored by an emphasis on winning big for the Buckeyes. They will need a dominant performance plus some help from Alabama and Texas in order to sneak into the College Football Playoff, so don’t expect Urban Meyer to take the foot off the gas once they get up by a couple of scores.

I’d also have no trouble betting OVER 60.5 in this game and I expect that total to climb as kickoff gets closer. 

Northwestern is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs Ohio State (avg. losing margin: 30.83). Ohio State is 0-3 ATS in its last three games after an ATS win.home Northwestern is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs its conference.away
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