The undefeated Notre Dame Fighting Irish face what is potentially their biggest roadblock to making the College Football Playoff when they visit Northwestern at Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois. The Wildcats already hold wins over Purdue, Michigan State, Nebraska and Wisconsin this year and are on pace to win the Big Ten West. Notre Dame opened as an 8-point favorite.
- Northwestern is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games.
- Notre Dame is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games vs the Big Ten.
- The Northwestern offense is 124th in the nation in yards per play.
Notre Dame vs Northwestern Game Center
Is Northwestern’s Defense Turning the Corner?
The past two weeks have been the Wildcats’ best all season in terms of points allowed and total yards against as they’ve allowed an average of 16 points and 255.5 yards. Northwestern is on a four-game winning streak and has caused six turnovers in its last three games – four forced fumbles and two interceptions.
Mike Hankwitz’s defensive unit is middle of the pack in terms of yardage and points allowed over the course of the season but it is important to note that it is third in the Big Ten with just 1.1 passing touchdowns surrendered per game with Notre Dame’s prolific Ian Book coming to town.
Northwestern is fourth in the Big Ten in first downs allowed. That’s as much a function of a strong defense as it is the offense’s ability to keep the ball in its hands. Northwestern is sixth in the entire NCAA in the number of offensive plays ran in 2018.
Notre Dame Isn’t a Spread Darling
The Fighting Irish are writing a heck of a story in 2018 and do have the potential for an undefeated season. However, for spread bettors, they’re nothing special at just 4-4 ATS. Further to that, Notre Dame is 12-0 SU in its last dozen games as a favorite of more than 7 points but is 0-6 ATS in its last six games under the same circumstances.
An interesting stat to note, though, is that the Irish are 3-1 ATS in night games this season and missed covering by half a point vs Navy in Week 9. Additionally, since taking over as the starting QB, Ian Book is throwing for a minimum of two touchdowns per game for a total of 13 to just four interceptions in five games plus three attempts.
My Pick for This Game
I’ve been eyeing this game on the schedule for about four weeks now as the one potential game that could trip up Notre Dame on the way to a perfect regular season and a berth in the College Football Playoff. I believe Northwestern is completely underrated as the Wildcats are 12-1 SU in their last 13 conference games and I’ve noted the wins that they’ve secured this year already.
With the Irish traveling from San Diego and their noted inability to cover spreads higher than 7 points, I think I’m going to have to take the underdog Wildcats in this game at +8. Northwestern played at home in Week 9 and will have the benefit of two weeks of home cooking, sleeping in their own beds, and the crowd in Evanston.
The total opened at 53.5 for this game and I think we'll see the score climb OVER that mark.
