Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs USC Trojans

The No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish lay their perfect 11-0 record on the line as they make their way to the West Coast to do battle with the USC Trojans with the Jeweled Shillelagh up for grabs. The two schools have swapped wins over the last five meetings with Notre Dame winning last year’s contest 49-14. The Irish are 10.5-point favorites to repeat this year with the total Sportsbook at 54 points.

Notre Dame vs USC Game Center

Fighting Irish look to complete the perfect regular season

Notre Dame has an opportunity to put together a perfect 12-0 regular season for the first time since 1988 but it has to earn its first road victory over USC since 2012. The Fighting Irish are coming off a statement game in which they yielded just three points to Syracuse – a team that was averaging 44.4 points per game, seventh-most in the nation – while pouring in 36 points of their own. They have a terrific balance between a strong passing game with Ian Book throwing for 2,116 yards and 17 touchdowns and a running game with Dexter Williams, who has rushed for 844 yards and 11 touchdowns. Both players missed games this year.

The Irish defense has been solid all year, surrendering fewer than 20 points in seven of their 11 games, and hasn’t given up more than 27 points in any match. Overall, they have allowed an average of 17.3 points per game, which is the 15th-fewest in the nation, including giving up just 184.3 passing yards per game, the 21st-fewest. An integral part to Notre Dame’s defense is senior defensive lineman Jerry Tillery, who has racked up seven sacks and three forced fumbles.

USC facing its worst season in over a decade

The Trojans have dropped four of their last five games and are currently on a two-game losing slide, a far cry from the expectations that accompanied being ranked for the first three weeks of the season. A loss this weekend would give them a 5-7 record, matching their worst season since 2000. The offense has been a struggle for USC this season, averaging just 26.9 points per game, which ranks 83rd in college football.

Its run attack is averaging just 137.1 rushing yards per game, which ranks 102nd, and the Trojans may be without starting running back Aca’Cedric Ware as he left last week’s game with a shoulder injury. The defense has been decent this season, definitely keeping them in games while surrendering 27.3 points per game, which is 69th in college football, but they lack many playmakers. USC has grabbed just three interceptions all year, which is tied for the fewest in the nation.

Should you be on the OVER in this week’s game?

There have been plenty of points scored over the last four meetings between Notre Dame and USC and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 54 points. The winning team in each of the last four contests between these two schools has scored 41 or more points and the total has gone OVER in three of those games and each of them had OVER 54 points scored. Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish have gone OVER in six of their last eight games with an average combined score of 56.38. Lastly, the Trojans have surrendered 30 or more points in five of their last nine games, while the Irish have scored 30 or more points in seven of their last eight games. I think Notre Dame will pile on the points and USC will be able to muster up enough points to carry the score OVER 54 points.

My take on Notre Dame vs USC

I like Notre Dame to cover the 10.5-point spread. USC’s defense ranks in the middle of the road in the majority of statistical categories and truly lacks big-play ability so I expect Ian Book and Dexter Williams to move the ball effectively against the Trojans. Meanwhile, the USC offense is nothing to write home about and we saw the Fighting Irish smother a strong offense last week in Syracuse. Additionally, Notre Dame is 5-2-1 ATS since Ian Book was named the starter in Week 4 with an average winning margin of 20.29, excluding the Florida State game because Brandon Wimbush was at the helm.