Irish Road Favorites Facing ACC Foe Virginia

Sportsbooks of four in a row, the seventh-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) opened as 4.5-point road favorites facing the Virginia Cavaliers (6-3, 6-3) on Saturday. The Cavaliers have won four of their last five but lost a shootout to BYU in their last outing.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Notre Dame opened as a 4.5-point favorite at Virginia, with the Fighting Irish now favored at -5 at some sportsbooks. The total was set at 64.5 and has held steady at most spots, with the occasional 64 available.

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Notre Dame News & Notes

After a slow start against Navy, the Notre Dame offense came to life in a 34-6 victory and the defense remained solid as usual. The Fighting Irish have allowed 30 or more points just twice this season, with one of those occasions coming in an overtime matchup in their opener against Florida State.

Quarterback Jack Coan hasn’t thrown for more than 300 yards since starting his Irish career with 366 passing yards against the Seminoles and has been held under 200 yards four times. Coan has, however, protected the ball well, throwing only one interception in his last seven games, and none over his last four.

The Irish are playing just their third true road game this season. They posted three-point victories in each of the previous two contests (at Florida State and at Virginia Tech). 

Virginia News & Notes

Not many offenses are playing better than Virginia’s right now. The Cavaliers are coming off an offensive slugfest against BYU in which the two teams combined for 115 points and 1,322 yards. Virginia has scored 48, 48 and 49 points in its last three games and is now averaging 545.2 total yards per game.

The attack is led by quarterback Brennan Armstrong, who is second in the country with 3,557 passing yards, nearly 400 yards better than the second-most prolific passer in the ACC, Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett.

The true key for Virginia, though, is the defense. In games when the Cavaliers allow 35 or more points, they are 1-3. They’re 5-0 when they hold their opponents below 35 points. That should be doable against an Irish offense that struggles at times to convert yards into points.

How Notre Dame Will Cover

The Fighting Irish need to limit big plays for Virginia and control the clock. If they are able to successfully execute their run game or short passing game, they should be able to stress the Virginia defense and offense.

How Virginia Will Cover

The simple way for Virginia to cover is to force the Irish into field goals and rely on the offense to move the ball and score points. If they can do that and avoid giving the Irish a short field, they will have a really good chance to not only cover but win the game outright.

Computer Pick: Notre Dame -4.5

For more Week 11 college football predictions, visit our NCAAF Computer Picks page.