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Unbeaten Baylor a Double-Digit Home Dog Against Oklahoma

A week after surviving a triple-overtime scare at TCU, the Baylor Bears face an even bigger threat to their 11-game winning streak when Oklahoma visits Waco. The Sooners have won 20 of the last 23 meetings and opened as double-digit favorites in what is likely a preview of this year’s Big 12 championship game.

Matchup Information
  • Oklahoma Sooners vs Baylor Bears (Matchup Report)
  • Date/Time: November 16, 7:30 p.m. ET
  • TV Coverage: ABC
  • Opening Odds: Baylor +10 | O/U 67.0 (Line History)

Opening Odds Analysis

The 10-point opener is the shortest spread in any Oklahoma game this season, partly in response to the Sooners’ 1-4 ATS mark in their last five games. Early bettors have still found value in Baylor, betting the Bears down to +9 a couple of hours after the line opened.

Oklahoma News & Notes

Well, at least the Oklahoma offense continues to play well. Quarterback Jalen Hurts carried on his brilliant season last week against Iowa State, throwing for three touchdowns and running for two more as the Sooners cracked the 40-point plateau for the eighth time in nine games. Oklahoma finished with 499 yards, including 226 on the ground, and was 8-for-13 on third down.

On most days, those numbers would have led to a comfortable Sooners victory. However, Oklahoma’s defense was lit up for the second straight week, allowing 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter as Iowa State nearly overcame a 42-21 deficit. In fact, the Sooners needed an interception of the Cyclones’ two-point conversion attempt with 24 seconds left to seal a 42-41 victory — its 18th straight in the month of November.

“I’m really proud of our kids, our defense, for doing that in the end,” Sooners coach Lincoln Riley told reporters, seemingly willing to ignore the fact that his stop unit has allowed 89 points in its past two games.

Baylor News & Notes

There were many times last week when it looked like the Bears’ hopes of an undefeated season were going to end at TCU. Baylor didn’t score a touchdown in regulation time, needed a 51-yard field goal in the final minute to force OT, converted on fourth-and-five to score a game-tying touchdown in double OT, and then survived TCU having first-and-goal from the one with a chance to win the game in the third overtime session.

The dramatic victory was fitting, considering the tight wire Baylor has walked much of the year. Four of the Bears’ nine wins have required fourth-quarter comebacks, all of them in conference play, and their victories over Iowa State, Texas Tech and West Virginia came by a combined margin of eight points.

Baylor has also won four games in which it scored less than 30 points, a feat the Bears likely won’t be able to pull off against the high-scoring Sooners. On the bright side for Baylor, the Bears hung 41 on Oklahoma the last time the teams met in Texas in 2017.

Betting Pick: Sooners -10

Baylor is going to have to score a lot of points to keep up with the Sooners, and I don’t think the Bears can — even against this Oklahoma defense.

Shark Bites
  • Oklahoma is 18-0 SU in its last 18 games in November.
  • Baylor is 11-0 SU in its last 11 games.
  • Oklahoma is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games against Baylor.