The Oklahoma Sooners are back in action following their bye week as they take on the TCU Horned Frogs at Amon Carter Stadium. Each team is coming off a loss in its last game and Oklahoma has opened as a 7.5-point favorite in this week’s matchup. The two schools have had an average combined score of 53.8 through their last five meetings and the total has opened at 61 points for this game.
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of Oklahoma’s last nine games vs TCU (avg. combined score: 54.78).
- Oklahoma is 4-0 SU in its last four games vs TCU (avg. winning margin: 12.25).
- TCU is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games.
Oklahoma is coming off its first loss of the season
Oklahoma has had two weeks to lick its wounds after dropping its first game of the season, getting edged out 48-45 by Texas in Week 6. The 48 points the Longhorns put up in the match were the most against the Sooners this year. Prior to the loss to the Longhorns, the Sooners were ranked No. 7 in the AP poll but have fallen to No. 9 heading into this week’s game. Oklahoma hits the road for just the second time this season, topping Iowa State 37-27 in Week 3 in its first away game.
The reigning Big 12 champions have the fifth-best offense in the nation, averaging 48 points per game, and are led by Kyler Murray. The junior quarterback has thrown for 1,764 yards with 21 touchdowns and just three interceptions and his 21 TDs rank as fourth-most in college football, tied with Heisman Trophy hopeful Tua Tagovailoa. Defensively, though, it’s been a struggle for the Sooners. They have surrendered 27.3 points per game, which ranks 76th in the nation, and their 264.3 passing yards allowed per game are the 24th-most given up in the NCAA.
Offense struggling for TCU this year
TCU has dropped three of its last four games, including falling to Texas Tech 17-14 last Thursday, and looks to get back on track in Week 8. The Horned Frogs are 2-2 SU through their four home games thus far, topping Iowa State and Southern while falling to then-No. 4 Ohio State and Texas Tech. Since moving to conference play in Week 4, points have been hard to come by for TCU as the team hasn’t scored more than 17 points in any of its three games against Big 12 opponents, getting outscored 62-47.
Sophomore quarterback Shawn Robinson has been struggling in his first year at the helm, tossing for 1,313 yards with nine touchdowns and eight interceptions, completing just 61.7 percent of his passes. Overall, the Horned Frogs are averaging 28.7 points per game, which ranks in a tie for 70th-most in the nation. On the other hand, TCU has been strong on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 20.2 points per game, which is 29th-fewest in the nation. The Frogs are holding opponents to just 182 passing yards per game, 20th-best in college football.
Is the UNDER the smart bet for this week’s match?
TCU and Oklahoma have had an average combined score of 53.8 over their last five meetings and Sportsbook has this game Sportsbook at 61 points. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have gone UNDER in eight of their last 10 games that there have been totals for with an average combined score of 47.4. Additionally, TCU has gone UNDER in 17 of its last 20 games against Big 12 opponents, including all three games this season and its last four overall. Conversely, Oklahoma has gone OVER in 16 of its last 20 Big 12 road games with an average combined score of 75.6. I don't think the UNDER is the smart bet as the total opened at 61 points and I think Oklahoma's offense is strong enough to put up 40 or more points, while its defense is susceptible and I think the OVER is the better wager.
My take on Oklahoma vs TCU
I like Oklahoma to cover -7.5. The Sooners are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 games coming off a bye week with an average winning margin of 19. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games against TCU with an average winning margin of 10.63. Additionally, the Horned Frogs are 5-5 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs the Big 12. Lastly, Oklahoma is 17-0 SU in its last 17 road games with an average winning margin of 21.06.
