Egg Bowl Has Potential For Another Defensive Battle

Ole Miss (9-2 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) and Mississippi State (7-4, 7-4) have gone UNDER the total in seven of the last eight Egg Bowls, and another lower-scoring affair could be in the cards when the state rivals collide Thursday night. The Rebels have gone UNDER the total in six straight.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Egg Bowl will feature two ranked teams for the first time since 2015, and bettors are supporting the host Bulldogs. Mississippi State had been bet to a 1-point favorite by the time of writing Sunday night, while the total had dropped slightly to 60.5.

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Ole Miss News & Notes

The Rebels have gained the fifth-most yards per game in the nation and rank near the bottom of the country in total defense, but that hasn’t translated into high-scoring games. In fact, Ole Miss has gone UNDER the total in six straight contests, with four of those six featuring 48 points or less.

Ole Miss was held to just 31 points against lowly Vanderbilt last week, although coach Lane Kiffin acknowledged after the game that his team may have been looking past the Commodores in anticipation of the Egg Bowl.

“It was a sandwich game,” Kiffin told the Associated Press. “I was a little surprised by how we played, but we came away with the win.”

The Rebels should certainly be motivated to produce a better performance against their state rivals, especially junior quarterback Matt Corral. Corral announced his intention to enter the NFL draft prior to last week’s game, meaning that this will be his last regular-season contest in an Ole Miss uniform.

Mississippi State News & Notes

Will Rogers isn’t eligible for the NFL draft for another year, but scouts should already be extremely familiar with the sophomore quarterback. Rogers broke Dak Prescott’s school single-season records for passing yards and passing touchdowns last week against Tennessee State, throwing his 34th TD pass of the campaign and cracking the 4,000-yard plateau.

Some of Rogers’ big numbers could be chalked up to coach Mike Leach’s Air Raid system, but the pivot has also done a great job taking care of the ball. Rogers has thrown just eight interceptions all season, and five of them came in one game against Alabama.

The Bulldogs enter the Egg Bowl with plenty of momentum, going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games. They’ve also gone OVER the total in each of their last four games, with an average of 62.3 points scored in those contests.

How Ole Miss Will Cover

Don’t read too much into Ole Miss’ performance last week in a classic letdown spot between a game against Texas A&M and this contest vs Mississippi State. Corral and the Rebels are capable of much more, and he should have time to dissect a Bulldogs defense that has struggled to rush the passer all season.

How Mississippi State Will Cover

The Bulldogs are the hotter of the two teams, especially on offense, scoring 98 points in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the Rebels are 1-2 SU this year on the road, where they’ve lost 10 of their last 13 dating back to 2019.

Computer Pick: Ole Miss +1

For more Week 13 college football predictions, visit our NCAAF Computer Picks page.