Justin Herbert and the prolific Oregon Ducks offense finally met their match last Saturday – but conditions are favorable for a return to form as they travel to Arizona Stadium for a Saturday encounter with the reeling Wildcats. The Ducks had high hopes going into their showdown with Washington State but were held scoreless in the Sportsbook half and couldn’t recover en route to a 34-20 loss. It marked the first time all season the Ducks didn’t score 30 points – but a new streak could be on the horizon.
The Wildcats are back home following a fruitless two-game trek that saw them drop games to Utah and UCLA while giving up a combined 73 points in those outings. And Arizona is still seething over last year’s encounter with Oregon, a 48-28 loss in which the Ducks racked up more than 350 rushing yards and five scores on the ground. The home team has had the cover advantage of late, going 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings between the teams. There is no line or total for this game as yet.
- Oregon is 7-2 SU in its last nine games on the road vs Arizona.
- The total has gone UNDER in nine of Oregon’s last 10 games on the road.
- Arizona is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three games at home vs teams with winning records.
Arizona Pass Game Facing Big Test
Despite plenty of uncertainty and underwhelming performances, the Wildcats’ quarterbacks have done a solid job taking care of the football – but that might be about to change against an Oregon pass defense that has been among the best in the nation in terms of turnovers, providing the Ducks offense with plenty of extra possessions through their first seven games.
Oregon comes into Week 9 as one of only 14 teams to have racked up double-digit interceptions on the season (11), though it has allowed the second-most passing touchdowns of any team on that list. And the Wildcats have actually done well to limit turnovers under center, with 14 passing touchdowns against just six interceptions through their first eight games.
With Oregon expected to push the tempo – and Arizona needing to take to the air to keep pace – the Ducks are a terrific high-risk, high-reward option to score a defensive touchdown. Bettors should consider taking the Yes on that prop.
Wildcats Wilt in the Red Zone
Arizona fans can be forgiven for wondering what could have been with a Wildcats team that has been frustratingly inconsistent en route to a 3-5 record. Part of the problem has been Arizona’s putrid performance inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. The Wildcats have converted just 78.6 percent of their 28 red-zone trips into points, ranking outside the top 100 in Division I in that category.
What’s worse is that only 15 of those possessions resulted in touchdowns – and missed opportunities ultimately cost the Wildcats a victory last time out against UCLA. Arizona converted five of six red-zone trips into points, but produced just three TDs and two field goals. The Wildcats also threw an INT in the red zone, and had a long would-be TD run go for naught thanks to a fumble.
Arizona has gone below the total in six of its previous eight games – and further red-zone struggles will undoubtedly make the UNDER the superior play here. The real target should be the UNDER on the Wildcats team total, with Oregon having held foes to just 10 touchdowns on 21 red-zone visits.
My Pick: Duck and Cover
This could very well be a letdown spot for an Oregon team that came out flat against Washington State. But the Ducks still have a realistic shot at an 11-2 record and consideration for a marquee bowl game – so look for them to come out firing against a Wildcats team that has lost three of four and might not have injured quarterback Khalil Tate back in the fold.
Oregon is a near-cinch to score 30+ against an Arizona defense allowing nearly 440 total yards per game – and with either a hobbled Tate or unproven QB Rhett Rodriguez (51.9 percent completion rate, three TDs, two INTs) expected to get the start, the Ducks should be able to hold the Wildcats offense at bay. I like the visitors to cover.
