Ducks Favored Over Beavers In Pac-12 Rivalry Game

The Oregon Ducks (9-2 SU, 4-7 ATS) are 18-0 SU and 7-11 ATS over their last 18 home games. The Ducks will be looking for a 19th straight win at home when they host the Oregon State Beavers (7-4, 7-4) on Saturday afternoon.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Ducks opened as 12.5-point favorites in this matchup, but heavy action on Oregon State has sent this line all the way down to Oregon -7. The total has settled in at 61.5 points since Sportsbook at 63.5 points. Oregon State is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games against Pac-12 opponents.

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Oregon State News & Notes

Oregon State picked up an impressive 24-10 win at home over the Arizona State Sun Devils as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. B.J. Baylor led the way on offense with 150 rushing yards on 20 carries. The junior back has now rushed for 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns on 196 carries this season.

The Beavers have seemed like a completely different team at home than on the road this season. Oregon State is 6-0 SU and ATS at home and has held opposing teams to only 18.6 points per game. Conversely, the Beavers are just 1-4 SU and ATS on the road and have given up 32.8 points per game. Dating back to late 2019, Oregon State is 1-8 SU over its last nine road games.

Oregon News & Notes

The toughest obstacle standing in Oregon’s way of clinching a spot in the College Football Playoff was last Saturday’s road game against the Utah Utes. The Ducks failed to overcome that obstacle as 3-point road underdogs as they were crushed by the Utes 38-7. Oregon was forced to abandon its running game after falling into a 28-0 hole in the first half and was unable to mount a comeback in the second half.

Key injuries on offense may have finally caught up to the Ducks down the stretch. Wide receivers Johnny Johnson III and Jaylon Reed joined starting running back CJ Verdell on the sideline for the remainder of the season with injuries prior to Oregon’s game against Utah.

The Ducks showed that they could hang with the top teams in the nation with their 35-28 win over Ohio State back in September, but inconsistency has plagued this group all season.

How Oregon State Will Cover

If Oregon State can figure out a way to play the same way on the road that they do at home, they could win this game outright. The Beavers will try to follow Utah’s game script of taking an early lead to force the Ducks to beat them in the passing game instead of on the ground.

How Oregon Will Cover

Oregon still has something to play for here as a loss to Oregon State would knock the Ducks out of the top spot in the Pac-12 North. Look for the Ducks to establish their running game early with Travis Dye to try to avoid a repeat of last weekend.

Computer Pick: Oregon State +7

For more Week 13 college football predictions, visit our NCAAF Computer Picks page.