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Oregon Hopes To Continue Success vs UCLA Saturday

The No. 10 Oregon Ducks (5-1 SU, 1-5 ATS) are 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS in their last nine games against the UCLA Bruins (5-2, 5-2). The Ducks will try to pick up another win over the Bruins on the road Saturday afternoon in Pasadena. 

Oregon Ducks vs UCLA Bruins
  • Date/Time: October 23, 12:30 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Rose Bowl
  • TV Coverage: ABC
  • Opening Odds: UCLA -1 | O/U 57.5 (Line History)
  • Oregon vs UCLA Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

The Bruins opened as a 1-point favorite at home and have received enough early betting action to push the line up to UCLA -2.5. The total has also moved up to 59 points since opening at 57.5 points. The UNDER is 5-0 in Oregon’s last five road games at UCLA.

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Oregon News & Notes

Travis Dye rushed for a season-high 145 yards and a touchdown and also caught seven passes for 73 yards in Oregon’s 24-17 win over the California Bears last Friday night. The Ducks lost starting running back CJ Verdell for the rest of the season to a leg injury in the team’s 31-24 loss to the Stanford Cardinal. Most teams would be ill-equipped to handle a loss of that magnitude, but the Ducks have an excellent replacement in Dye, who is averaging 6.7 yards per carry in 2021.

Since pulling off their impressive 35-28 upset win on the road as 14.5-point underdogs against the Ohio State Buckeyes, the Ducks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games. Oregon is just 1-5 ATS this season and 2-9 ATS over its last 11 games overall.

UCLA News & Notes

The fans at the Rose Bowl will be hungry for a win this Saturday. After opening the season with a 2-0 SU and ATS record at home with wins over the Hawaii Warriors and LSU Tigers, the Bruins have suffered two straight losses at home to the Fresno State Bulldogs and Arizona State Sun Devils. UCLA has gone a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS on the road in the meantime, however, bringing the team’s record to 5-2 SU and ATS.

Zach Charbonnet and Brittain Brown have combined for 1,165 rushing yards on 182 carries for an impressive 6.4 yards per carry. This 1-2 punch could give Oregon’s defense some trouble as the Ducks are allowing 137.3 rushing yards per game this season. UCLA’s rushing defense ranks ninth-best in the nation, allowing only 91 rushing yards per game.

Why Oregon Will Cover

Oregon torched UCLA’s defense for 38 points last year and for 42 points in 2018. The Bruins are having a strong season on offense this year, but they aren’t likely to win in a shootout if the Ducks are able to turn this game into one.

Why UCLA Will Cover

The key to this matchup for UCLA is its rushing defense. Both the Ducks (210.3 rushing yards per game) and the Bruins (220.1 rushing yards per game) have excellent rushing attacks, but UCLA’s rushing defense has been much better in 2021. If that continues on Saturday, the Bruins probably win.

Computer Pick: UCLA -2

For more college football predictions, visit our NCAAF Computer Picks page.

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Shark Bites
  • Oregon is 5-1 SU in its last 6 October games.
  • UCLA is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games vs the Pac-12.
  • The UNDER is 7-2 in Oregon’s last 9 games.