Penn State’s national title hopes took a catastrophic turn with last weekend’s home loss to Michigan State – and the Nittany Lions would love nothing more than to take out their frustrations on a familiar punching bag. Look for the Lions to come out swinging as they travel to Memorial Stadium for a date with the Indiana Hoosiers. They were on the fast track to the College Football Playoff through their first four games, but back-to-back home losses to Ohio State and Michigan State have them scrambling.
If there’s a silver lining in the dark cloud hanging over University Park, it’s that Penn State has absolutely dominated Indiana over the years, going into Saturday’s encounter with an 18-1 SU record in their last 19 head-to-head meetings. And the Nittany Lions have provided spread bettors with reason to care about this matchup as well, having covered in three straight years. The Hoosiers, who are coming off a 42-16 loss to Iowa last Saturday, come in as 14-point underdogs. The total has been set at 61.
- Penn State is 8-2 SU and ATS in its last 10 games on the road.
- Indiana is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games vs its conference.
- The total has gone OVER in seven of Penn State’s last nine games.
Penn State vs Indiana Game Center
PSU Rebounding as a Conference Cover?
On the surface, Penn State’s ATS record against Big Ten opponents looks terrific – but a closer glance reveals a trend that might no longer be viable. And given the letdown the Nittany Lions have suffered with consecutive home defeats, it’s fair to wonder if bettors might be skittish to trust a team that no longer has the motivation of the CFP to lean on moving forward.
The Nittany Lions have been one of the more reliable conference cover options in recent history, boasting a sparkling 15-5 ATS mark over their past 20 games vs Big Ten foes. But most of those covers came during an incredible 12-1 ATS run from October 2016 to October 2017. Since then, Penn State is just 3-4 ATS, most recently falling 21-17 to the Spartans at -13.5.
That said, the Nittany Lions had covered three straight conference matchups prior to last Saturday’s loss, and they’re 9-3-1 ATS in their previous 13 games as a favorite of 14-plus points. And with a New Year’s Six bowl berth still very much in play, Penn State is a strong option to cover Saturday against the overwhelmed Hoosiers.
Hoosiers Put up a Good Fight
Call it garbage-time scoring prowess if you will, but the Hoosiers have actually been decent offensively in games they have little chance of winning. And this one rightly falls into that category, with an angry Penn State team set to steamroll an Indiana side that looked completely out of sync in a 26-point home loss to the Hawkeyes last weekend.
But consider that Indiana has been a double-digit home underdog eight times since 2011 and has produced an average of 27.4 points in those contests. Never mind that the Hoosiers lost all eight, or that their visiting opponents averaged a whopping 44.5 points in those games – Indiana’s ability to rack up those (mostly) meaningless TDs translates to a 7-1 OVER/UNDER record in that span.
Penn State might score at will Saturday, but don’t discount the Hoosiers’ ability to hit the scoreboard themselves. And that puts both the main total OVER and Indiana’s team total OVER in play.
My pick: PSU’s Having a Points Party
Penn State’s 16.7 first-half points per game vs FBS opponents is far below its mark from last year (23.5), thanks in part to encounters with a handful of stout defenses. But the Hoosiers don’t qualify: They’ve allowed 35 or more points in three of their last four games – two of which were at Memorial Stadium – and have surrendered an incredible 91 points in back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Iowa.
I have little doubt that Penn State will come into this game ready to make an example of the lowly Hoosiers, particularly in the first half. The Hoosiers have been leaking points of late, and don’t have the defensive talent or depth to contain the Nittany Lions. Look for Penn State to cash the OVER on its first-half total – and consider the OVER on the 1H game total, as well.
