The Nittany Lions and the Panthers play Saturday at Heinz Field in the third game of a four-year series that renewed a rivalry previously idle for 16 years. Both squads are 1-0 coming out of Week 1. Penn State won a high-scoring game over Appalachian State 45-38, nowhere near covering the 24-point spread. Pitt beat Albany 33-7, narrowly covering the 25.5-point spread by half a point. There are some happy Pitt bettors heading into Week 2. Penn State opened as a 9.5-point favorite but most books have them at -8.5 on Friday and the line has been there since early in the week.
- Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU in its last six games against the Big Ten.
- The total has gone OVER in 10 of Penn State’s last 13 games on the road (avg. combined score: 60.92).
- Penn State is 17-5-1 ATS in its last 23 games.
Penn State vs Pittsburgh Game Center
McSorley is the Difference Maker
The Nittany Lions have won five in a row SU and have looked great ATS over the last couple of years at 17-5-1. Currently favored by just over a touchdown, they’re looking like a decent bet to cover the spread in the Pennsylvania matchup this year. In last year’s game, hosted by Penn State, the home team prevailed by a score of 33-14, pushing the 19-point spread.
In Week 1, fourth-year QB Trace McSorley was 21-for-36 with a touchdown pass for a total of 230 yards in the air. The dual-threat from Ashburn, Virginia also compiled 53 yards on the ground in 12 attempts, finding the end zone twice. Miles Sanders produced 91 yards and two more TDs out of the backfield as the Nittany Lions survived a scare from Appalachian State. Expect that scare to bring out the best in them vs their rivals.
Panthers 3-11 All-Time vs the Big Ten
Pittsburgh had a relatively easy time with Albany in Week 1 at home, but they can expect a whole lot more out of their state rivals in Week 2. Kenny Pickett was 13-for-13 in the first half, leading the Panthers to TDs on their first five possessions of the game. Bettors probably shouldn’t look too much into that performance, other than to say that it could be a reason why the spread is narrowing vs Penn State.
Historically the Panthers have not been good at all vs the Big Ten, going just 3-11 SU all-time. One of those wins came at Penn State in 2016, but really, the players have all changed and that result holds little to no water entering Saturday’s contest. Pitt has covered the spread just once in its last seven games vs Big Ten schools.
Penn State Taking the Total Over on the Road
Ten of Penn State’s last 13 road contests have hit the OVER with an average combined score of 60.92. The total for this game opened at 56.5 and bettors are hammering the OVER according to our consensus data. Despite that, the total has actually fallen to 55 as of Friday.
Penn State hit the OVER in Week 1 and also saw the OVER cash in six of its final seven contests of 2017. The average combined score in the eight games referenced was 67.63.
