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Point spread favors Red Raiders in battle with Longhorns

Texas LonghornsTexas Tech Red Raiders
Nov 3, 3:30 PM | Turf of Jones AT&T Stadium

Texas Longhorns vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Odds


In a Lone Star State battle the 6-2 Red Raiders of Texas Tech host the 6-2 Texas Longhorns Saturday afternoon (3:30 pm ET, ABC/ESPN2).

Texas Tech, which just got blown out by Kansas State, was an early seven-point favorite over the 'Horns, who just squeaked by Kansas.

It’s been a while since the Texas Tech Red Raiders got past the Texas Longhorns in their yearly rivalry matchup. In fact, the former hasn’t even been ranked for the midseason bout since they won it last in 2009. Now at No. 18 in the BCS standings, compared to Texas’ No. 23, they’ll look to once again cash in on the college football moneyline.

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It’s not often that the Red Raiders have the advantage over their Lone Star State rivals, but a quick look at their regular season schedules reveals why. While Texas was suffering a pair of dramatic October losses to West Virginia and Oklahoma (they’re only ranked opponents to date), the Red Raiders were showing glimpses of just what they’re capable of.

Though themselves downed by Oklahoma and most recently Kansas State, Texas Tech  made up for the losses with victories over ranked West Virginia and TCU. Therein lies the difference between the Red Raiders and the Longhorns on the NCAA moneyline.

Betting on college football is all about playing rivalries the right way. Although recent history may point to Texas, the wind of 2012 is blowing toward Texas Tech. Should the Red Raiders put their Week 9 defeat behind them, there’s no reason to believe why impressive things can’t continue to happen in Lubbock.

View Texas vs Texas Tech Odds and Stats.

Betting Line: Texas Tech were sitting as 2.5-point favorites earlier in the week at Bovada. The total was set around 7 at midweek over at GTbets.eu.

Power Rankings / Prediction: This game matches up the No. 5 (Red Raiders) and the No. 46 (Longhorns) teams in the league, according to our current NCAAF Power Rankings at OddsShark. A 50-44 result in favor of the Red Raiders is predicted by handicapping models.

How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Texas Tech's No. 12-ranked offense (40.5 PPG) against a Longhorns defense that ranks No. 100 at 32.8 PPG. The Red Raiders passing attack has averaged 357.9 yards per game, more than the Longhorns give up through the air (229.2 YPG on average).

In comparing defenses, the Longhorns own the league's No. 112-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 255.5 yards per game when on the road. Texas Tech, on the other hand, rates No. 43 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Last time out for Texas, they were a 21-17 winner as they battled Kansas on the road. Texas failed to cover in the match as a 18.5-point favorite, while 38 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors. Johnathan Gray went over the 100-yard mark (111) in his team's latest effort as Texas defeated Kansas by a score of 21-17 on Saturday.

In their last action, Texas Tech was a 55-24 loser on the road against Kansas State. They failed to cover the 7-point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (79) was profitable news for OVER bettors. Seth Doege handled the Wildcats defense in his team's most recent action, throwing for 331 yards, but Texas Tech still lost to Kansas State 55-24.

Texas Longhorns Trends:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing within the conference are 5-5

Texas Tech Red Raiders Trends:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on turf are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 3-7

A few Longhorns at Red Raiders trends to consider:
Texas is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Texas Tech
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Texas's last 10 games when playing Texas Tech
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Texas Tech's last 10 games when playing Texas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas Tech's last 5 games when playing at home against Texas
Texas Tech is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Texas Tech is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games at home

Next up:
Texas home to Iowa State, Saturday, November 10
Texas Tech home to Kansas, Saturday, November 10