New Mexico Bowl Picks & Odds: Expect Plenty Of Points When SMU Meets BYU

Two of the most potent attacks in the nation meet in the New Mexico Bowl as the SMU Mustangs (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) take on the BYU Cougars (7-5, 4-8). SMU is seeking its first bowl victory in a decade, but BYU has covered just two of its last eight postseason contests.

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New Mexico Bowl Sportsbook Odds

Oddsmakers opened this game in a pick’em range, and that’s where the point spread still sat at the time of writing after there was no significant early line movement in either direction. Be sure to monitor the odds, however, as they could drastically shift once the status of several BYU star players is confirmed. The total opened north of 70, one of just three bowl games to have an OVER/UNDER set that high.

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Latest Betting Notes: SMU

Led by NFL-bound quarterback Tanner Mordecai, the Mustangs feature one of the nation’s best passing attacks, averaging nearly 325 yards per game through the air. Mordecai, who threw for 3,306 yards and 31 touchdowns despite playing nearly half the season with broken ribs, often looks for Rashee Rice, whose 1,355 receiving yards are the second-most in college football.

As good as the Mustangs are on the offensive side of the ball, they’re as bad on the defensive side. SMU has surrendered 59 points or more in two of its last four games and gave up nearly 450 total yards per game during the regular season.

Unfortunately for bettors, the Mustangs’ tendency to play high-scoring games isn’t a secret, especially to oddsmakers. SMU has actually gone UNDER the total in seven of its 12 games this year — many of them lined in the high 60s or low 70s — and is also 5-1 to the UNDER in its last six postseason contests.

Latest Betting Notes: BYU

Before you bet on this game, make sure to check on the status of BYU quarterback Jaren Hall and wide receiver Puka Nacua. Both seniors have indicated their desire to play in the New Mexico Bowl, but they could end up deciding to sit this game out to prepare for the NFL draft. Hall is also dealing with an ankle injury that caused him to leave BYU’s regular-season finale against Stanford.

If Hall doesn’t play, the Cougars don’t have much depth at the quarterback position after backup Jacob Conover entered the transfer portal. That could mean BYU leans even more on a ground game that produced 358 yards against the Cardinal, averaging more than seven yards per carry.

Keys To Victory: SMU

Mordecai will want to put on a show in his final game before entering the draft, and there will be plenty of other opportunities to do that against BYU’s 93rd-ranked defense. The Mustangs’ pass rush has also improved as the year has gone along, which could test the health of Hall’s ankle — if BYU’s starter suits up at all.

Keys To Victory: BYU

The Cougars ran wild in their last game and they could do so again against an SMU front that is allowing more than 200 rushing yards per game this season. Hall’s availability will also be huge in a game where the Cougars may have to score 40 points to win.

New Mexico Bowl Computer Pick: BYU +1.5

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