I get it. Saturdays are busy and you want to handicap college football quickly but smartly and get some action down.
I’m here to help. Here’s a quick look at what bettors need to know for Saturday’s college football action:
Some of the bigger line moves for Week 2:
Ohio at Kansas +3 to -2
Utah State at USC -14 to -16.5
UConn at Navy -6 to -3.5
Georgia State at Air Force -18 to -21
UTSA at Colorado State -12 to -9
Sharp money love in Week 2 for:
Public money love for:
Key item to note from last week:
The OVER/UNDER went 34-50-3 in Week 1, meaning the UNDER won at a profitable 60 percent win rate. Totals of higher than 65 went 6-12 O/U also. These things all tend to have a way of evening out over the course of a season so it’s important to observe when we see anomalies.
Quick betting notes for some of the biggest matchups:
N.C. State at ECU
East Carolina has won the last five matchups against ACC teams but the money is all over the Pack in this one. The line opened +3.5 and moved up to +5.5.
Cincinnati at Purdue
The Bearcats smashed a pile of school records on offense last year but they have a new OC this season. They only scored 28 against Tennessee-Martin last week as they try out some new things. Probably why the early money was on the home dog here.
Utah State at USC
Lotta points here but the Aggies are trying out new coaches on both sides of the ball. The Trojans got murdered by Alabama last week, which could have this line a little lower than it should be. Pac-12 teams went 5-7 against the spread in non-conference games last week but a better schedule could be more forgiving this week.
Arkansas at TCU
This line is up to 7.5 but the action is largely split. Home faves went 97-115 against the spread (just 45.8%) over the last five seasons with odds of a touchdown with the hook. But the faves went 152-60 straight up (71.7%) in those games so the numbers suggest it’s worth throwing these teams SU on a parlay maybe but you may want to use some caution against the spread.
UNC at Illinois
North Carolina ran all over Illinois last year for 254 yards. It was a 48-14 thrashing but the game fell UNDER by a point. When a team runs that much, it keeps the clock running. I employed this strategy last week in UNC’s game against Georgia and the game slipped UNDER. A lot of love for the OVER here so I’d advise some caution.
South Carolina at Mississippi State
I analyzed the odds for this game in full here.
BYU at Utah
Utah has won the last five meetings but over 70 percent of the money is on BYU today.
Tennessee at Virginia Tech
Aiming to set a college football attendance record at Bristol Motor Speedway. Early action was split on the side but overwhelmingly on the UNDER early in the day. Va. Tech is the second-worst bet in college football over the last five years at 22-38-2 ATS.
Texas Tech at Arizona State
There’s a lot of love for Texas Tech here at +3 and this could be one of those lines where oddsmakers aren’t fooling anyone. Heavy action has moved the line down. The Red Raiders can wing it as always and they go up against an ASU defense that’s not great against the pass and some inexperience on the O-line.
Washington State at Boise State
This is a Sharp vs. Public game with the sharps on Boise State. The public perhaps sees some holes in a Boise State defense and an inflated line after the Cougars lost to FCS Eastern Washington last week. Keep in mind that E. Washington is a top FCS team and the Cougs also lost to an FCS opponent last year and went on to cover the spread 10 times.
Cal at San Diego State
The Golden Bears have had a two-week layoff since their game in Australia. They face a much better defense than they did against Hawaii and if their first game was any indication, Cal’s defense still stinks. Up against a top-20 rushing offense from last season in San Diego State.
Trend of the day:
Michigan's last nine games have played over the total. The OddsShark consensus says 72 percent of bets are on the OVER but the OddsShark computer says the Wolverines shut out UCF and the game goes UNDER.
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