Rested Cardinal, Sun Devils Meet in Thursday ESPN Showdown

The Stanford Cardinal and Arizona State Sun Devils both hope a week off cured what ailed them when they meet Thursday night in a nationally televised Pac-12 clash on ESPN. Stanford (4-2 overall, 2-1 Pac-12) stumbled into its bye week with consecutive losses, first at Notre Dame and then at home to Utah, to fall out of the AP Top 25. Arizona State (3-3 overall, 1-2 Pac-12) has also had a difficult time of late, dropping three of its last four after a promising 2-0 start under new head coach Herm Edwards.

Last week’s bye came at a great time from an injury standpoint for both teams as well. Stanford could have star running back Bryce Love back in the lineup while Sun Devils quarterback Manny Wilkins and receiver N’Keal Harry were banged up prior to the break. Stanford is a 2-point favorite to hand Arizona State its first home loss in nearly a year.

Stanford vs Arizona State Game Center

WILL STANFORD LOOK TO AIR IT OUT?

Defense and the running game have been staples of Stanford football during David Shaw’s tenure as Cardinal coach, but neither has performed up to standard in 2018. Stanford’s defense is in the bottom third of the nation in passing yards, rushing yards and total yards allowed, while the Cardinal’s ground attack has been limited to a mediocre 85.7 yards per contest, 127th in college football.

With Stanford’s sputtering run game and a defense that has allowed 109 points in its last three games, many are calling for Shaw to open up the offense and put the ball in the hands of quarterback K.J. Costello more often. The junior pivot has thrown 26 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions in two seasons as Stanford’s starter, and he has several excellent receivers at his disposal. However, Costello has struggled in his last two games when Stanford had to go pass-heavy to try to overcome big deficits, including throwing two red-zone picks (one that was returned for a touchdown) and losing a fumble in a 41-20 loss to Utah.

Stanford’s changing identity may be Sportsbook an opportunity for OVER bettors. The Cardinal regularly play games with lower totals because of their reputation as a run-heavy team that relies on defense, but each of Stanford’s last three games has sailed OVER the number.

ARIZONA STATE MUCH MORE DANGEROUS AT HOME

The Sun Devils continue to be a much more dangerous team when playing at home. Arizona State is 3-0 straight up and against the spread this year when playing in Tempe, improving to 5-0 in each of those categories going back to last season. The Sun Devils’ success at home dates back far further than that, however. Over the last four years, Arizona State has covered 14 of 19 games at Sun Devil Stadium, scoring at least 40 points in nine of those 19 contests.

The Devils have also fared well over the years when Stanford has come to town. Arizona State is 6-4 overall and 6-3-1 ATS in the 10 all-time meetings between the teams in Tempe, including a 26-10 victory as a 3.5-point dog in the most recent meeting in 2014.

WHY WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME POINTS

The trends may point to the UNDER here, with seven of the last nine meetings between these teams staying low and Stanford going UNDER in 28 of its last 40 on the road. However, the Cardinal are playing differently right now than they have in years past, partly out of necessity from playing from behind and partly because they simply can’t run the ball with any efficiency. Meanwhile, Arizona State plays with a lot more confidence at home and I like the Sun Devils to move the ball well against a Stanford defense that has been gashed in recent weeks.

An OVER/UNDER hadn’t been posted when this article was published, but I expect it to be lower than it should be simply because of Stanford’s reputation. As long as we don’t have anything higher than the mid-50s to work with, I’ll be looking to back the OVER in this prime-time Thursday matchup.