After an impressive victory over a ranked opponent last week, the Texas Longhorns have a chance for another when they host the in-state rival Texas Christian University Horned Frogs this Saturday in the Big 12 season opener for both teams. Texas scored 34 unanswered points to rout then-No. 22 USC 37-14 last Saturday at home, holding the Trojans scoreless in the final three quarters. No. 17 TCU looks to rebound from a 40-28 loss to Ohio State in a game the Frogs led by eight points in the third quarter, only to see the Buckeyes take control with three touchdowns in a four-minute span. TCU has beaten Texas in each of the last four years, holding the Longhorns to 10 points or less in each of those contests. Texas is a 2.5-point home underdog in this one.
- The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
- TCU is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
- The UNDER is 18-5 in Texas’s last 23 games.
HORNED FROGS SHOOT THEMSELVES IN THE FOOT VS BUCKEYES
Playing in front of 64,000 fans at AT&T Stadium as well as a national TV audience last Saturday, TCU gave the powerful Buckeyes all they could handle. The Horned Frogs generated more than 500 yards of total offense, had two touchdowns of more than 50 yards, and led 21-13 midway through the third quarter.
Then, disaster struck. First, the Horned Frogs allowed a short pass to go for a 63-yard touchdown. Then TCU quarterback Shawn Robinson threw a shovel pass right into the gut of Ohio State tackle Dre’Mont Jones, who returned it 28 yards for a go-ahead touchdown. And a couple of minutes later, the Horned Frogs gifted the Buckeyes another touchdown when their blocked punt led to an Ohio State score two plays later. Overall, TCU finished the night -3 in the turnover battle, also missing a 31-yard field goal that would have opened the scoring.
“Can’t give them 20 points,” TCU coach Gary Patterson told reporters. “Outside of that, I thought our team played a really good football game.”
LONGHORNS COULD BE VULNERABLE TO LETDOWN AFTER BIG WIN
Just two weeks after a humiliating season-opening loss at Maryland, the Longhorns regained some of their swagger last week with their big win over the Trojans in Austin. Texas held USC scoreless over the final three quarters and the Trojans finished the night with -5 rushing yards. A school-record crowd of 103,507 celebrated what has already been declared the signature victory of coach Tom Herman’s 16-game tenure in Texas.
It could be a challenge for the Longhorns to match that intensity just a week later, even against a ranked rival in TCU. Herman certainly seemed aware of that following the win over USC, telling reporters, “It’s one (game), and we’ve got a one-game season next week against a really, really good opponent… We’ll evaluate … where this win stands by how we respond to it.”
Based on recent history, we shouldn’t be surprised to see Texas let down a bit this week. The Longhorns have covered just one of their last six games following a victory by more than 20 points, and they’re 1-3-1 ATS in their last five after holding opponents to less than 20 in their previous game.
TCU HAS OWNED TEXAS SINCE JOINING BIG 12
When TCU joined the Big 12 in 2012, many were skeptical that the Horned Frogs could compete with Texas and other conference powers when it came to recruiting. But not only have the Horned Frogs enjoyed three 11-win seasons in the last four years, they’ve also dominated the Longhorns in their short rivalry.
TCU has won five of six meetings with Texas since moving into the conference, and most of them haven’t been close. In fact, TCU’s 17-point win over the Horns last year was the Frogs’ smallest margin of victory in the last four meetings, which includes a 50-7 rout in 2015 and a 48-10 laugher the previous year.
With the Horned Frogs motivated to rebound from last week’s loss and the potential for the Longhorns to be complacent early, my money’s on TCU to cover this short number on the road.
